Why Tinubu, Obi shouldn't be excited over Afenifere's endorsement [Pulse Comment]
The outcome of recent national elections have suggested that Afenifere lacked the influence and appeal to sway the minds of Yoruba voters and no candidate worth his salt should bask in the group's endorsement.
Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi (Punch)
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One common feature of every election cycle in Nigeria is the spate of endorsements from different groups, political parties and even socio-cultural groups, including some individuals, who believe they can muster enough support to ensure victory for their preferred candidates.
Nigerians have become all too familiar with this trope as every election cycle since 1999 has seen Afenifere taken controversial stance regarding the choice of candidate to support.
The latest instalment is the endorsement and counter-endorsement of two leading presidential candidates in the 2023 elections.
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Trouble started back in September of this year when a section of the group led by Pa Ayo Adebanjo announced their endorsement of the Labour Party Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, as the choice for the Yoruba.
However, recent turn of events have shown that Adebanjo's decision may not have reflected the position of all the stakeholders of the group, including the life leader, Pa Reuben Fasoranti.
On Sunday last week, the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, had an engagement with leaders of Afenifere at the country home of Fasoranti in Akure, Ondo State capital.
Although advertised as an event for Tinubu to present his action plan to the Yoruba elders and leaders, the outcome of the meeting proved that it was carefully planned to endorse the former Lagos State Governor.
Fasoranti, alongside leaders of Afenifere who were from the six South-west states plus Kwara and Kogi, had a brief meeting with Tinubu and endorsed him immediately after.
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Expectedly, the Akure endorsement has created a chasm between the two leaders of Afenifere.
The development has also divided opinions among analysts as some agreed with Adebanjo's reason for supporting Obi, while others argued that it was difficult for Fasoranti's camp to abandon their tribesman.
Does Afenifere's endorsement really matter?
While this is not the first time Afenifere would be sticking its neck out for candidates in a national election, it's important to examine how such moves in the past have impacted election outcomes in Nigeria.
Perhaps we can agree that Afenifere's first foray into Nigerian politics was during the June 12, 1993 presidential election victory of Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola. With the annulment of the election and the death of MKO, the agitation for South-West to be allowed to have an unchallenged shot at presidency became expedient across the country.
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In 1999, a similar crisis to what is being witnessed now broke out in Afenifere. The group was divided over who to present as candidate of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) before the 1999 general elections.
The contest was between Chief Oluyemi Falae and late Chief Bola Ige, the next in command to the then Afenifere leader, Chief Abraham Adesanya.
Ige felt since he was deputy to the leader, he should ordinarily, without any sweat, get the nod but, the party chose Falae to fly the flag of the then Alliance for Democracy (AD/APP) which led to an upset within the group.
In the same election, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presented another candidate of Yoruba extraction, Olusegun Obasanjo, to fly its presidential flag in what was dubbed an all South-West contest.
Afenifere endorsed Falae and mobilised enough votes to sweep governorship elections in all the six states of the region. But the votes were insignificant enough to make Falae president as Obasanjo emerged winner.
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In 2003, the group agreed to support Obasanjo's re-election bid in the PDP while still hoping to get the six AD governors re-elected in the South-West.
While one leg of the plan worked perfectly well as Obasanjo got the overwhelming votes in the region to defeat his main challenger, Muhammadu Buhari, who is incumbent president, the other leg was counterproductive with AD losing five governors in that election to the PDP.
The governors in the South-west including, Chief Bisi Akande of Osun State, Chief Lam Adesina of Oyo State, Niyi Adebayo of Ekiti State, Chief Adebayo Adefarati of Ondo State, and Chief Segun Osoba of Ogun State all lost their seats to the PDP.
The only survivor of that political tsunami was the then Lagos State governor, Tinubu, who reportedly opposed Afenifere's alliance with Obasanjo. Many analysts have said that was the point of departure between Tinubu and Afenifere, but that subject will be reserved for another time.
It would be recalled that the group also supported former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 because of his promise to restructure the country but Jonathan lost the election to Buhari.
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In 2019, Afenifere threw its weight behind the PDP candidate Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who like Jonathan, assured them that he will prioritise restructuring if he wins. Needless to say that Atiku lost to Buhari, paving the way for him to have his second term of four years.
Interestingly, both in the 2015 and 2019 elections, the two candidates Afenifere supported didn't only lose but also failed to win any state in the South-West with the exception of Atiku in 2019 as he managed to take Ondo State with a margin of 30,000 votes.
The foregoing historical analysis has proven that, aside from the 2003 general election, there was no time Afenifere’s endorsed candidate won the presidential election.
Projecting into 2023, it would be safe to assume that the group, beyond its moral suasion, doesn't have the capacity to influence how the Yoruba will vote.
This is also true considering that it has no governors, senators or members of the House of Representatives or any political structure apart from their moral support.
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