Predicting the winner of show via social media

Imagine the uproar that would occur if everyone's seeming favourite housemate on social media, Efe, loses the prize money.

Efe

It is usually at that moment that you realize how personal the game is to most Nigerians, especially, when their least favourite housemates survive eviction, and the least expected leaves the house.

Contrary to polls on various sites and social media platforms, on Sunday, March 26, 2017, TBoss survived yet another eviction, Debie-Rise got saved, and unfortunately, Bassey got evicted.

At the end of the day, there is the question; can social media really determine how a reality show dependent on public votes to produce a winner will pan out? My answer would be No.

According to Doug Bowman, "Social networks are bubbles that trick us into believing everyone else thinks and acts more like us."

On social media and when it comes to reality shows, most people think that because they dislike a particular contestant, every other person feels the same way.

On Sunday, most Twitter users couldn't wrap their heads around why a 'boring' TBoss would be chosen over an entertaining and extremely well behaved Bassey.

The answer and inescapable fact is that most of Bassey's fans failed to vote because social media had led them to believe that viewers wouldn't choose a Debie-Rise or TBoss over Bassey.

So, they focused more on campaigning for the exit of their least favourite housemates, rather than vote for their favourite.

Social media is currently preaching the message of a winner in Efe. What if they get it wrong? After all, how is it possible that when every poll and prediction site said that Hillary Clinton would win, Trump emerged the winner?

Though there are cases where the most popular or a contestant with the most social media presence emerges the winner, it is rarely the case.

Just because somebody constantly engages with a tweet, doesn't mean that they have voted or will vote for a particular contestant. Also, there are usually more followers offline who are only interested in voting.

A quick look at contestants with high social media presence who have lost in the past; Chike from The Voice Nigeria,Joe Blue from The Voice Nigeria and Tayo Faniran from Big Brother Africa among others.

When it comes to competitions that rely on votes to produce a winner, anyone can emerge the winner.

Social media is perfect for creating awareness and engagements, but, it is the least effective tool to predict a winner.

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