Polarized Brazil awaits former president's appeal ruling

A polarized Brazil held its breath Wednesday ahead of a court decision that could confirm a corruption conviction against former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and end his hopes of reelection this year.

A three-judge court convened in the tense southern city of Porto Alegre to rule on an appeal by the hugely popular leftist icon against his July corruption conviction in Brazil's sprawling "Car Wash" graft scandal.

The stakes are high and thousands of Lula supporters and opponents have gathered in the city to await the ruling.

Police surrounded the district that includes the court, which is in the middle of a park, and helicopters flew overhead.

Lula was not in court but hundreds of kilometers (miles) away near Sao Paolo, addressing former colleagues in the powerful metalworkers' union he once led.

"I am extremely calm, with the awareness that I have committed no crime," he told union members.

"The only thing I'm sure of is that I will not stop fighting until the day of my death," said Lula, who was set to take part in a demonstration in Sao Paolo later Wednesday.

Court review

The court session started with a review of the trial evidence, according to an AFP journalist inside the courtroom.

Lula is accused of being gifted a three-floor seaside apartment from Brazil's OAS construction group in exchange for public contracts from state-controlled oil company Petrobas during his 2003-2010 presidency.

Defense lawyer Cristiano Zanin Martins told the court it was clear OAS owned the apartment and "Lula never got the keys and never spent a night there."

Prosecutor Mauricio Gerum slammed what he called an attempt to "contaminate the trial" through "the perpetuation of a personal political project" -- an obvious reference to Lula who has rallied supporters to his cause.

Lula addressed thousands of cheering supporters at a rally in Porto Alegre on Tuesday night, many wearing the red T-shirts of his Workers' Party (PT).

He was joined on the podium by his handpicked successor Dilma Rousseff, who was impeached in 2016 for breaking budget rules.

Lula, Rousseff and leftist leaders say they are the victims of a plot by the judicial, political and business sectors to sideline the PT.

Rousseff had earlier denounced what she called the "third stage of the coup" against Lula.

The first, she argued, was her impeachment, the second consisted of the austerity budget introduced by her successor Michel Temer and the third "aiming to destroy the PT and especially our leader."

Widely beloved during his two-term presidency, Lula was sentenced in July to nine and a half years behind bars after being convicted of corruption and money laundering in the "Car Wash" scandal.

The court is seen as likely to uphold the conviction, and in doing so, effectively scupper his chances of running in an October presidential election he is favored to win. Lula could appeal but the process could drag on for months.

The Eurasia Group consultancy said the court will probably uphold the conviction "and Lula will probably be disqualified in final decisions by the Supreme Court and the electoral court" but closer to election time.

High security

Authorities in Porto Alegre have mounted a special security operation to keep opponents and supporters of Lula apart over fears of clashes.

Helicopters hovered near the courthouse and even ships were being used to protect the building, located adjacent to a river.

Argentine ex-footballer Diego Maradona used social media to voice his support for Lula and released pictures of him holding a Brazil football jersey printed with Lula's name.

"My dear Lula, Diego is with You," wrote Maradona in Portuguese.

But Lula is also hated by many Brazilians who want to see him put behind bars. Similarly, the markets are betting strongly that the courts will confirm his sentence and block his way to the presidency. Sao Paolo's stock exchange was up by more than 2.0 percent at midday.

"Markets cannot hide their enthusiasm: a ruling against Lula, who has promised to revert part of 's business-friendly reforms, is widely seen as a fatal blow to his presidential bid," said Silvio Cascione in a note from the Eurasia consultancy.

Whatever the verdict, the court decision will constitute a new test for Brazilian democracy.

jpeg Mpeg4-1280x720"If Lula can't run, the election is very uncertain and we would have five or six candidates with the possibility of reaching the second round, which would make the 2018 elections the most unpredictable since the restoration of democracy (in 1985)," political scientist Mauricio Santoro of Rio de Janeiro State University told AFP.