Nigeria’s economy: Harder times are coming – Expert

Reactions have continued to trail World Bank recent report which lowered its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2023 to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent.

What the report said: “The Nigerian economy is projected to slow in 2023, down to 3.2 percent (from 3.3 percent) and persist at this level the following year. Growth will be supported mainly by the rebound in private consumption prompted mostly by accommodative monetary policy as inflationary pressures subside.

"Private consumption expenditure is forecast to decrease this year and grow next year. This performance will likely continue in 2024. On the production side, growth in 2023 will be supported by industry (with growth of 5.1 percent) with the mega-refinery project,” the report said.

Reason for the decline: It blamed the development on inflationary pressures, global economic realities, the continued Ukraine war, and the downward slope in demand from China for commodities produced in Africa, are some chains binding the Nigerian economy today.

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, BIC Consultancy Services, Dr. Boniface Chizea told reporters that the projection should not come as a surprise because it mirrors Nigeria’s economic realities.

What Nigerians should do with this info: He added that Nigerians should brace up for tough times as the figure will invariably affect the nation’s misery index.

He noted that the development will invariably underpine attainment of equivalent levels of development within the economy, thereby inevitably worsening the misery index in Nigeria.

According to him, “The fact that the World Bank has downgraded its projection on Nigeria’s economic growth to 3.3% should not come to us as any surprise. It resonates with the reality about the Nigerian economy which all of us can feel and should know.”

“But what readily comes to mind as we undertake this discussion is that for some time now, the focus in Nigeria has been rather on the rate of inflation and whether or not the country is going to slide into recession or not. I think that we should also spare some thoughts to show some concern on how the economy is doing in terms of projected growth rates”, he stated.

Other projections by World Bank: The World Bank also projected that the Sub-Saharan African region will record a lower economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2022 from 4.1 percent recorded in 2021.

What you should know: The forecasts were contained in the October edition of the World Bank’s Africa’s Pulse, a biannual analysis of the near-term regional macroeconomic outlook and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).