World Bank forecasts worsening insecurity and economic hardship in six Nigerian states

Persistent insecurity and armed conflict, and deteriorating livelihoods, are projected to affect Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, and Niger, among other areas.
Challenging macroeconomic conditions are impeding access to agricultural inputs in the country, potentially impacting cereal production.
Cereal production for the 2023/24 crop year in West and Central Africa is expected to be 76.5 million tons, a 2% decrease from the previous season.

This situation is expected to persist in various local government areas within Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states, and the northern regions of Adamawa State in Nigeria until May 2024.

The international finance body stressed that challenging macroeconomic conditions are impeding access to agricultural inputs in the country, potentially impacting cereal production.

The World Bank's latest 'Food Security Update' suggests that estimated cereal production for the 2023/24 crop year in West and Central Africa is expected to be 76.5 million tons, a 2% decrease from the previous season. However, it marks a 3% increase from the average over the last five years.

What the World Bank said:

“Projections indicate a decline in production from last year in Chad, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. This decrease is attributed to dry spells during the growing season and insecurity that limited access to cropland in Chad, Mali, and Niger and to poor macroeconomic conditions that have restricted access to agricultural inputs in Nigeria.”

“Over the same period (November to May 2024), Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions, mainly caused by persistent insecurity and armed conflict, and deteriorating livelihoods, are projected to affect the following regions,"

“Nigeria: Local government areas in Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states, and the far north of Adamawa state," it added.

This impact will extend to locations in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, and Niger, among other areas.

Food inflation has been rising globally. In real terms, food price inflation has surpassed overall inflation by 74% in 167 countries, with the most affected being in Africa.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 28.20% in November, while food inflation hit a record 32.84%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).