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These are groups that will win election for you anytime in Nigeria

Petty traders, market women, and educated population are more important than professionals and elites in electoral equation of Nigeria.

Since the first republic in Nigeria, this hypothesis has been there that it is market women, artisans, petty traders and civil servants that determine who is elected or not. Recent data have also helped to authenticate this fact.

Hence, going after these set of people guarantee a likely positive outcome than the educated class. Thus, making the Godfathers of politics in Nigeria to hold these class in high esteem. They know the power lays in them, but they don't know.

The re-elected Governor of Anambra state, Mr Chief Willie Obiano of APGA – a minority party, confirmed this fact in his speech.

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“Umu nnem, the victory we savour today belongs neither to Willie Obiano nor to our great party, APGA. No! This sweet victory belongs to Ndi Anambra! It belongs to the wheelbarrow pushers and the Okada riders who have clearly seen in our recent political experience, a glimmer of light on the horizon,” Obiano said.

“It belongs to the farmers in Ayamelum, Onono, Ogbaru, Omasi, Umar and Ufuma who have now realized that Agriculture is the future of Nigeria. It belongs to the teachers and civil servants who have seen that a motivated workforce is the greatest asset of any government and have rewarded our faith in them with an overwhelming verdict at the polls.”

It is on this fact that the late strongman of Ibadan, Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu, is always sure of electoral victory for his favoured candidate. Although, he was deeply hated by the educated and professionals class, the low class continue to make him an indisposable figure in the state.

The above scenario still holds potent till date. The Elites and professionals consider election as smoke-screening, as they believe it will always be rigged or cannot afford to stay under the scorching sun just for voting. Hence, they see any election day as a public holiday.

As a result, space is left for low-class citizens to take charge of the process. Louts and hooligans have more political weight than professionals in Nigeria. It is, as a result that there is no correlation between candidates' performance at the debates and election results in Nigeria. And there may not be in the next five decades.

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Also, the social media giants and civil society organisations rarely influence the trend of voting in Nigeria. This is because over 50 percent of those with the electoral powers are always offline. Even the youths have been noted to be more active online but nowhere to found on election days.

As 2019 approaches, it is certain that more social media activists will emerge, but the voting power still lays in the hands of petty traders and semi-educated Nigerians. Hence, serious politicians should have a plan for these people.

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