How MPs will likely vote in today's Brexit indicative votes

Members of Parliament will on Wednesday evening seize control of the agenda and stage a series of "indicative votes" on Brexit.
Options likely to be considered by MPs are to leave Britain without a deal, revoke Article 50, or hold a second referendum.
It is possible none of the options will gather majority support.
Victory for any could push Britain in a very different Brexit direction.

LONDON Members of Parliament will on Wednesday evening seize control of the House of Commons agenda in order to take part in a series of "indicative votes" designed to direct Theresa May's Brexit plans.

The House of Commons Speaker John Bercow will this afternoon select the options to be voted on from a selection of 16 put forward by MPs on Tuesday.

MPs will then select one, or more, of the options they are in favour of on a ballot paper, with results expected at some point after 21.15 GMT.

The votes are technically non-binding, but could put huge pressure on May to change course. If there is a majority for any option, MPs could also choose to legislate for it to force the prime minister to act.

So what will the likely options on the ballot paper be and how will MPs vote?

No-deal Brexit

Brexit protest Getty

Even if selected by Bercow, this option is highly unlikely to be successful given that MPs have repeatedly passed previous motions ruling out a no-deal exit.

Chance of passing today: 0%

Revoke Article 50

Revoke Article 50 Getty

Chance of passing today: 5%

A confirmatory second referendum

Brexit protest REUTERS/Simon Dawson

Chance of passing today: 20%

Staying in the Customs Union

A line of lorries is seen during a trial between disused Manston Airport and the Port of Dover of how road will cope in case of a REUTERS/Toby Melville

Chance of passing 40%

A very soft Brexit

Norway Getty Images

The Labour leadership's own motion is broadly in line with this. However, there are signs that the party may also throw its weight behind a backbench motion brought forward by Labour and Conservative pro-Europeans for a "Common Market 2.0" or "Norway Plus" relationship with the EU. This option would leave Britain very closely tied to the EU and could potentially command a majority of MPs.

However, with most Conservative MPs opposing and Labour deeply split between those in Leave seats who object to the plan as a betrayal of the referendum result and Remainers who are holding out for a second referendum, this option is likely to fail to win a majority at least at the first time of asking.

However, if plans go ahead for another run-off series of indicative votes next week in which the best losers from today's votes are voted on again then it could potentially squeak by, particularly if it is judged as the best option for preventing a no-deal Brexit.

Chance of passing: 50%

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