Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has been projected to rise to 3.1% in 2018 and to 3.5% in 2019, from 2.6% in 2017, as the recovery gradually strengthens in the largest economies.
The World Bank stated this in its “Global Economic Prospects report”, released on Tuesday, June 6, 2018, for Sub-Saharan Africa.
The bank said a modest economic recovery has continued in Sub-Saharan Africa, supported by rising oil and metals production spurred by higher commodity prices, by improving agricultural conditions and by increasing domestic demand.
The report further stated that several countries, including Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria, experienced a pickup in manufacturing activity, while renewed government commitments to macroeconomic and governance reforms have boosted investor and consumer confidence in Angola, South Africa, and Zimbabwe.
“Elsewhere, including in Kenya and The Gambia, consumer spending has risen, helped by low inflation and a rebound in remittances.”
Here are the new projection:
Nigeria is anticipated to grow by 2.1% this year, as non-oil sector growth remains subdued due to low investment, and at a 2.2% pace next year.
Angola is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019, reflecting an increased availability of foreign exchange due to higher oil prices, rising natural gas production, and improved business sentiment.
South Africa is forecast to expand 1.4% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019 as a pickup in business and consumer confidence supports stronger growth in investment and consumption expenditures.
The bank also said rising mining output and stable metals prices are anticipated to boost activity in metals exporters while growth in non-resource-intensive countries is expected to remain robust, supported by improving agricultural conditions and infrastructure investment.
“But growth alone won’t be enough to address pockets of extreme poverty in other parts of the world. Policymakers need to focus on ways to support growth over the longer run, by boosting productivity and labour force participation to accelerate progress toward ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity,” the World Bank Group President, Jim Yong Kim, said.
Democratic Republic of Congo
Rising mining output and stable metals prices are anticipated to boost activity in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is projected to grow 3.8% in 2018 and 4.1% in 2019.
But the Ebola outbreak could slow growth in the DRC and the sub-region if it spreads faster than anticipated in major urban centres and into neighbouring countries.
Zambia economy is expected to advance 4.1% this year and 4.5% next year.
Growth in Ghana is forecast to moderate from 6.9%in 2018 to 6.7% in 2019 as the effects of high oil production dissipate.
Côte d’Ivoire and Ethiopia
Economic activity is expected to remain robust in non-resource-intensive economies, such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ethiopia, supported by improving agricultural conditions, infrastructure investment, and household demand.
The bank also warned in its June 2018 Global Economic Prospects that risks remain tilted to the downside, faster-than-expected tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies could dampen investor appetite for higher risk assets in frontier markets.
World Bank economic forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances.