6 charts show how the trade war and the GM workers strike have hit the US economy

US industrial production has also suffered as a result of General Motors workers striking in September.
These charts show how these major events have hit the US economy.
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The US economy is under mounting pressure due to external forces such as the trade war and a slowing global economy, as well as domestic issues such as strikes at General Motors.

As a result, uncertainty has risen across the board and started to show up in economic data.

In September, consumer sentiment fell by the most in nine months , signaling resilient consumer spending could be at risk.

Industrial production has also taken a hit as the trade war, the workers strike at General Motors in September , and other factors have weighed on demand.

However, the yield curve the market's favorite indicator of recession is no longer inverted, somewhat alleviating fears of an imminent recession.

Below are some charts showing how the American economy is faring:

Economic growth and business confidence are under pressure

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Capital Economics

GDP and business confidence have both trended downward in recent months as the uncertainty caused by Trump's trade war weighed on sentiment. However, the Markit sentiment line shown in light gray did register a slight uptick. Overall, confidence has remained above the key 50 point threshold so things remain positive.

The GM workers strike has hit industrial production

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Capital Economics

Industrial production has been whacked this year, and the GM workers strike weighed on production as shown by the decline of 0.5% in September, though this should recover.

"Subdued global demand means manufacturing output is likely to trend lower in the coming months," Capital Economics said.

Consumer confidence remains strong

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Capital Economics

Consumer confidence has been one of the bright sparks of the American economy, something that hasn't waned while the rest of the economy has slowed due to the trade war. While it's still healthy, it could fall in the coming months.

The trade war has hit new factory orders

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Capital Economics

New factory orders have taken a massive hit during the trade war as shown by the line in purple. Weaker sales of manufactured goods and other products to overseas customers remain a key headwind.

"With global demand weak, the immediate outlook for exports is poor," Capital Economics said. "The apparent deal with China to boost purchases of US agriculture product is encouraging, but soybean exports already rebounded ahead of the trade talks."

Exports to China have dropped

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Capital Economics

Exports to China have dropped significantly and now exports to the rest of the world are slowing also. A slowing world economy has weighed on global demand and therefore America's export industries.

Growth in US jobs is slowing

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Capital Economics

Growth in US job numbers has tapered in recent months.

"The 136,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in September extends the gradual slowdown from last year's unusually strong pace," Capital Economics says. It warned the GM strike could reduce October's reading by tens of thousands of jobs.

6 charts show how the trade war and the GM workers strike have hit the US economy

Economic growth and business confidence are under pressure

The GM workers strike has hit industrial production

Consumer confidence remains strong

The trade war has hit new factory orders

Exports to China have dropped

Growth in US jobs is slowing

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