From ₦1,300 to ₦2,000/kg: The real reason cooking gas prices just skyrocketed 

• A massive spike in household demand for holiday cooking (Eid/Ileya) has temporarily outpaced available local gas supplies.

• Heavy-duty truck drivers have significantly hiked transport fares to deliver gas from depots, a cost passed directly to consumers.

• Ongoing foreign exchange volatility and steep landing costs had already left retail gas prices highly vulnerable to sudden market shocks.

• Because this ₦2,000/kg surge is heavily driven by seasonal bottlenecks rather than permanent policy shifts, prices are expected to cool down post-festivity.

If you have tried refilling your gas cylinder recently, your wallet has likely felt the sting. 

In a shockingly short period, the retail price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), popularly known as cooking gas, has climbed from a baseline of around ₦1,300 per kilogram to a staggering ₦2,000 per kilogram in many neighbourhoods.

When prices spike this rapidly, it is easy to point fingers entirely at macroeconomic factors or government policies. 

However, the current reality on the ground is a mix of long-term structural issues and immediate, seasonal pressures.

Here is a detailed breakdown of the real reasons why cooking gas prices have hit the roof and what is driving this temporary market madness.

We are currently in the thick of the festive Eid al-Adha (Ileya) season. During this period, food is at the centre of celebration. 

Millions of households, catering services, and restaurants are simultaneously preparing large batches of Jollof rice, frying meat, and boiling soups.

In economics, when the demand for a product shoots up overnight while the available supply remains the same, the price naturally spikes. 

Because everyone is rushing to refill their cylinders at the same time to avoid getting caught stranded mid-cook, retailers are experiencing a massive rush, allowing market forces to drive the price upward.

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Getting gas from the major depots (like those in Lagos) to your local roadside vendor requires heavy-duty trucks. 

During festive periods, transportation costs in Nigeria traditionally skyrocket, and not necessarily because petrol or diesel prices went up that week.

Many truck drivers and transport companies demand premium rates, informally dubbed "Ileya money", to work during the holidays or to brave the heavy festive traffic.

A Simple Example: If a transporter normally charges ₦100,000 to move a load of gas from a depot to a local community but suddenly demands ₦150,000 because of the festive rush, that extra ₦50,000 does not just disappear. The gas sellers must absorb that cost and pass it directly to the final consumer.

While the festive season explains the sudden jump to ₦2,000/kg, the baseline price of gas was already precariously high due to broader economic factors.

Even though Nigeria produces natural gas, local LPG pricing is heavily benchmarked against the US Dollar and international market rates. 

Continuous foreign exchange (FX) volatility means that the landing cost for marketers remains incredibly high. 

When it costs more foreign currency to secure and distribute the product, the baseline retail price shifts permanently higher, making it highly sensitive to any minor market disruptions.

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Before the gas ever reaches a truck, it has to be cleared from the depots. In recent weeks, tight supply schedules and logistical delays at major distribution hubs have created artificial scarcity. 

When retail vendors arrive at the depots and find fewer operational channels or longer waiting times, a supply crunch occurs. 

Fewer available kilograms of gas in the market, mixed with higher festive demand, is a recipe for immediate price inflation.

To put it in the simplest terms possible, the jump to ₦2,000/kg is the result of a temporary perfect storm:

• Massive demand: Too many people are trying to buy gas at the same time for holiday cooking.

• Inflated transport fares: Drivers charging festive premiums to move goods.

• Passed-on logistics costs: Retailers are raising prices to cover their own increased operational expenses.

The current spike is heavily driven by seasonal logistics and localised market forces. Once the festive rush winds down and supply chains normalise, consumers can reasonably expect retail prices to cool off from this current peak.