Nigeria faces risks of 31,400 extra heat deaths, food shortages and more: What to know about El Niño and how to protect yourself

• El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

• Its effects on Nigeria can vary, but changes in rainfall and temperature could affect farming, water supplies and food prices.

• Nigerians can prepare by following local weather alerts, protecting themselves from heat and planning for possible water shortages or flooding.

Recently, the weather has been hotter and quite unbearable, with increasingly erratic rainfall. This is likely due to a climate phenomenon called El Niño that scientists say is strengthening and could persist into early 2027.

El Niño has often been associated with extreme heat and its effects on people's health, and even now, it has been projected to cause 31,400 deaths in Nigeria over the next six months. But beyond that, it can alter rainfall patterns, affecting farming, water supplies and food prices. 

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño in its August 2026 update. Northern Nigeria is expected to be more exposed to its potential effects. 

Rainfall deficits and dry spells have already affected parts of the north, including Borno, Yobe, Kebbi, Sokoto, Bauchi, Gombe and Plateau states. Some of these places are major food-producing zones.

The effects can be severe elsewhere, too. BBC Weather reported that Indonesia had recorded nearly 896,000 hectares of land burnt in its worst wildfire season since 2015. So, what does El Niño mean for Nigeria, and how could it affect our weather and daily lives?

El Niño happens when the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual for an extended period.

Although the Pacific Ocean is far from Nigeria, this warming changes winds and the movement of heat and moisture in the atmosphere. These changes can affect weather patterns in other parts of the world, influencing rainfall and temperatures.

El Niño is part of a climate cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Its opposite phase, La Niña, occurs when the same Pacific waters become cooler than usual. When neither phase is present, conditions are described as ENSO-neutral.

El Niño events usually occur every two to seven years and typically last nine to 12 months, although some last longer.

The key point is that El Niño does not make every country hotter or drier. It changes the likelihood of certain weather conditions, and the effects depend on the country’s location at the time of year.

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One potential effect is a longer period without rain in areas where rainfall is already limited or seasonal.

For farmers who depend on rain to grow crops, a dry spell at the wrong time can leave the soil too dry for plants to develop properly. If the rains start late or end earlier than expected, farmers may also have less time to grow their crops.

The Middle Belt (North-Central region) is widely recognised as the major food-producing zone of Nigeria. 

These places already experience rain deficit; if dry spells or flooding occur in these areas, it could damage crops or reduce harvests, and less food may be available for sale. 

The overall outcome aside from the food shortage is the upward pressure on food prices. This will make it even more difficult for households already struggling to survive with the current state of the economy.  

El Niño can contribute to higher global temperatures.

For Nigerians, unusually hot conditions can make outdoor work more difficult and increase the risk of heat-related illness. People who work on farms, at construction sites or in markets may find it harder to work for long periods in extreme heat.

Higher temperatures can also increase demand for electricity used by fans and air conditioners, which means it’d also increase the electricity bill.

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When rainfall is insufficient for an extended period, water sources may receive less replenishment. Grass and other vegetation that livestock depend on for food may also become scarce.

This can make it more difficult for herders to find water and grazing land for their animals. Poor pasture conditions can affect livestock health and productivity, potentially affecting the livelihoods of pastoralists and the supply of animal products.

The scale of the impact depends on the duration of dry spells and the availability of water sources, grazing areas and other support.

El Niño is associated with dry conditions in some regions, but that does not mean heavy rain cannot occur.

Other weather systems can produce intense rainfall even after a prolonged dry spell. And when heavy rainfall happens, water levels rise until rivers or lakes overflow into nearby communities. 

Even after a period of hot, dry weather, intense rainfall can cause flash floods, especially where the ground cannot absorb water quickly or drainage is inadequate. 

This can damage crops, wash away seeds and displace people living in flood-prone communities.

Changes in temperature and rainfall can affect how diseases spread in Nigeria.

Heavy rainfall and flooding can contaminate drinking water with sewage and waste, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera and diarrhoea.

Hotter conditions and changing rainfall patterns can also influence mosquito breeding and malaria transmission in some areas.

Drink clean water regularly, wear light, loose-fitting clothes and avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest hours.

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Check on young children, older people, pregnant women and anyone with an existing health condition, as they may be more vulnerable to heat-related illness.

Prepare for heavy rain and flooding. Clear gutters and drainage channels around your home of debris. Keep important documents, medicines and electrical appliances somewhere safe and above possible floodwater levels. 

Plan for possible water shortages. Keep a supply of clean drinking water where possible, store it safely in covered containers and avoid wasting water if shortages affect your area.

Prepare for food price changes. Keep essential non-perishable foods at home within your budget, and use what you already have before buying more. Avoid panic-buying.

Stay informed. El Niño does not mean every part of Nigeria will experience extreme heat, drought or flooding. Follow local weather updates and respond to the risks forecast for your area rather than relying on rumours or general warnings.