Nigeria will let Dangote and other marketers determine fuel cost as prices surges to #1,500 per litre.

• The Nigerian government says it will not return fuel subsidies or introduce price controls despite rising costs.

• Petrol prices are climbing, with Dangote Refinery raising ex-depot rates and pump prices increasing nationwide.

• Global oil tensions and market forces are driving prices, while Nigerians face rising transport and living costs.

Fuel is getting more expensive, the government knows, and it has made it clear it will not step in.

Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said on Tuesday in Paris, where President Tinubu was meeting with global investors, that neither the fuel subsidy nor price controls are coming back. Instead, Dangote, independent marketers, and global crude oil rates will set the price. 

“We will not bring back subsidy because it brings distortion for the economy and we won’t introduce price control because we believe in the market”, he said.

As of today, Dangote Refinery has raised its ex-depot price again, this time to ₦1,350 per litre, up from ₦1,275 just seven days ago. By the time fuel moves from the depot to your neighbourhood filling station, pump prices will increase. 

Across most states they are already ranging between ₦1,100 and ₦1,400 per litre. In border communities and the north where supply routes are longer, some areas are already paying close to ₦1,700 per litre.

The main driver is what is happening in the Middle East. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude from $105 per barrel on April 27 to $118 by April 29, forcing the Dangote Refinery to adjust its pricing and briefly halt sales to marketers, disrupting supply schedules across the country.

The government's response, delivered from Paris, is that this is how it is supposed to work. Oyedele stated that subsidies create economic distortions, and that the government trusts market forces to regulate prices on their own while promising that regulation will prevent outright exploitation by suppliers and traders. 

Tinubu, speaking to the same investors, pointed to foreign exchange stability as proof that the reforms are working, describing the old subsidy as "a burden to the entire country."

On the Iran-US war, Oyedele framed it not just as a problem but as an opening, arguing that with global buyers now scrambling to diversify their supply sources, Nigeria has a chance to increase exports and earn more.

That argument may land well in a Paris investor meeting. However, when subsidy was removed in May 2023, headline inflation jumped from 22.41 percent to 34.19 percent by June 2024, driven by rising fuel, food, and transport costs. 

Taxi drivers have already raised fares in response to the latest hikes, and passengers say the government needs to act before things spiral further out of reach.

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