Why the Premier League faces uncertainty and chaos after the Manchester City verdict

If you thought the saga surrounding the 115 charges against Manchester City was nearing its end, think again. Two years and ten days after the hearing began, and 1,329 days after the charges were brought, we now know a verdict has been reached, finding the club guilty of most of the financial rule breaches.

However, we are not learning this from the Premier League or Manchester City, but thanks to The Athletic, which broke and published the story first.

BBC Sport was later informed that the decision was sent to the club's management during the week, with directors having to sign a non-disclosure agreement to open the file.

A process can seem completely watertight, as this one certainly was, but as the circle of trust expands, the chance of a leak increases. Nevertheless, the public silence from the Premier League continues.

In a statement, City did not comment on whether they were found guilty, making it clear that from their perspective, "the process is ongoing" as an appeal is expected.

All of this suggests that the long-awaited decision from the independent commission is not the end of the process, but perhaps more like the end of the beginning.

It seems the chaos and uncertainty are only just beginning to intensify.

City fans and the entire football world are left to guess what the punishment might be, and when this will all reach a final conclusion. The charges are so serious that some form of points deduction now seems inevitable, pending an appeal from City, who have always insisted they have done nothing wrong.

When and how any potential punishment will be applied will be crucial not only for City but for the Premier League as a whole. And that's before we even get to the prospect of clubs suing City for compensation.

Enzo Maresca's team travels to Liverpool on October 11, when the Premier League resumes after the international break. They could potentially extend their lead at the top to six points. But is that now meaningless?

Let's examine the possible scenarios, none of which are particularly appealing.

Scenario One: No punishment announced this season

Determining the punishment should be quicker than establishing guilt, but in this case, nothing is certain. As the charges are denied, a sanctions hearing convened by the independent commission will be necessary. BBC Sport has learned that this hearing could take place months from now, and the outcome may not be published until an appeal is concluded. At the hearing, everything will be on the table: fines, points deductions, and even expulsion from the league.

This differs from Chelsea's case earlier this year, as the Stamford Bridge club self-reported and admitted their guilt. This allowed them to negotiate with the Premier League and reach an agreement on a sanction.

It is possible that City could decide to admit guilt and try to strike a deal, which would be better for the league, although this seems unlikely given the club's consistent and categorical denials over many years. The commission will have to review hundreds of pages of evidence and determine the punishment.

Everton were deducted six points (reduced from an initial 10 on appeal) and subsequently another two points for separate breaches of the Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR). Nottingham Forest were docked four points. These breaches were considered minor, whereas City faces seven separate charges of PSR violations in the Premier League alone, as well as five more related to UEFA competitions.

This aspect alone suggests a significant points deduction penalty.

This is before even getting to the inflated sponsorship revenues allegedly funnelled through company accounts as a means of complying with Financial Fair Play rules, payments to players and managers, and a refusal to cooperate with investigations.

Taking all this into account, an asterisk is placed next to the Premier League's name for the period between 2009 and 2018. Chelsea and Manchester City, two of the competition's most successful clubs, were part of this. While Chelsea admitted to effectively cheating, City has been found guilty. They circumvented financial rules to enable them to sign more expensive players than their finances should have allowed.

And if this season passes without a decision on a sanction, while it is known that City is guilty on most charges, what does that mean for the integrity of the competition?

Could the punishment be applied retroactively to this season when it is finally imposed? Unlikely.

What if Manchester City wins the league?

Currently, Coventry is third from bottom. What if they finish in that position, get relegated, but would have been safe if City's punishment had been applied this season? This inertia is terrible news for the Premier League as a competition.

There is a strong argument that an agreed sanction is the cleanest way out of this situation.

However, this may not be acceptable to the league, as it would have to negotiate with City, who would likely push for a lighter punishment.

Scenario Two: Manchester City's punishment is imposed this season, but the club appeals

The standard procedure for a points deduction is for it to be applied immediately, subject to appeal. It is possible the points deduction could be so large that it effectively results in relegation. Alternatively, if City's Premier League membership were revoked, it is unclear how this could be implemented mid-season.

It is also possible the punishment could be a huge fine, although this seems unlikely given the points deductions handed to other clubs.

The question is how soon we will learn the decision and how long after that an appeal will be heard. The league typically requests an expedited process from the independent arbitration company that handles disciplinary cases. But as always in this case, the complexity suggests the process will not be straightforward.

There is also a slim chance that the punishment would only be applied to the standings after the appeal. This would certainly lead to protests from affected teams this season, who would insist that the sanction, as is customary, take effect immediately.

Scenario Three: The appeal is heard quickly and a full decision is announced

To preserve the integrity of the Premier League and for all clubs to know what they are competing for, this must happen as soon as possible. Last season, West Bromwich Albion's points deduction for Profit and Sustainability Rule breaches was not announced until April 24. Although they ultimately remained in the Championship, it dragged them back into a survival battle when they thought they were safe. It also gave some hope to the teams in the relegation zone.

The Premier League does not want this case to drag on into the penultimate month of the season, but in this story, nothing is guaranteed.

In this scenario, we must not forget that City could win their appeal, just as they did in July 2020 against the two-year Champions League ban imposed by UEFA. While this would be celebrated at the Etihad Stadium, it would likely not end the fierce disputes surrounding the case.

Scenario Four: Even after the case is concluded, it's not the end

Premier League clubs are seeking legal advice regarding compensation from Manchester City over the case. One source, who held a senior management position at two league teams, stated that he expects clubs to file individual compensation claims against Manchester City. Another leading lawyer told the BBC that this process could even be centralised by the league.

Premier League rules allow clubs to take legal action against each other for compensation. In June, Everton were ordered to pay £35 million to Burnley after breaching Profit and Sustainability Rules over a three-year period. Burnley argued that the breach affected their chances of staying in the Premier League and sought compensation for losses related to relegation. Everton are appealing, with sources previously stating they would contest the decision "categorically and comprehensively," but this sets an interesting precedent for the Manchester City case.

There is uncertainty about the statute of limitations, which would set a deadline for filing claims. It is reported that Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Tottenham reserved their rights to seek compensation as far back as two years ago.

This isn't just about Manchester United (twice) and Liverpool, who finished second to City in their title-winning seasons. It's also about those clubs that narrowly missed out on the Champions League, failed to qualify for European competitions, or were even relegated.

This could also lead to claims for prize money for each Premier League position or for potential commercial revenue lost by rival clubs.

Kieran Maguire, a football finance lecturer at the University of Liverpool, told BBC Sport that claimants will view this as a "deprivation of opportunity." Maguire explained that "the statute of limitations is not mentioned" in the traditional Premier League rulebook, although this could be subject to a legal challenge from City.

And what about compensation? Just looking at Champions League qualification, huge financial claims could arise.

"Back then, the Champions League was worth a minimum of £30 million," said Maguire. "I think by 2018, it was already worth maybe £60 or £70 million, and that's just from prize money."

Furthermore, claims could be made for loss of ticket revenue and loss of sponsor bonuses. This is unlikely, but it is certainly being discussed.

"Players receive bonuses for qualifying for the Champions League. These bonuses, if you talk to people associated with elite clubs, are typically in the region of 25%. The average salary at that time, if we go back to 2012, was probably in the order of £80,000 or £90,000 a week."

Twenty-five percent of that sum equates to four or five million pounds a year. That's how the problems accumulate.

Points deductions, fines, and compensation claims. The situation for the Premier League is extremely messy, and it doesn't look like it will be resolved anytime soon.

BBC