We all thought it, but Manchester City never expected this day to come

Friday was the day it seemed Manchester City never believed would come.

More than three and a half years after the Premier League brought its initial 115 charges against the club, The Athletic reported that City had been found guilty on almost all of them.

The penalties are not yet known, which only underscores the magnitude of the situation: anything from stripping titles to relegation now seems possible. Even the idea of a fine now sounds far more serious—any financial sanction would surely be enormous.

Lawsuits from rival clubs for lost revenue could drag on for years and lead to further financial losses. Executives at other clubs, not to mention their supporters, will be demanding a harsh punishment. And what's next for City's top figures, like chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak and CEO Ferran Soriano? Both will be under immense pressure to resign. What will happen to Erling Haaland and the club's other stars on long-term contracts?

Judging by City's reactions over the years, this was never supposed to happen. Ever since the club was first accused of financial wrongdoing in 2018, when Rui Pinto published a trove of hacked emails, its stance has been one of unwavering defiance.

When City went to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) in 2020 to overturn UEFA's decision to ban them from the Champions League, a picture emerged of then-manager Pep Guardiola and senior club executives, including Soriano. They were smiling in front of a TV screen reporting the club's legal victory. City had not participated in the UEFA proceedings, believing them to be biased, and instead presented their evidence to the arbitration court.

When the Premier League announced its own charges in February 2023, City stated they welcomed the opportunity to clear their name and present the "comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence that exists in support of its position." The club has not deviated from that line since. After their victory against UEFA, it always seemed entirely possible, even likely, that City would handle the Premier League in the same way.

In the 18 months since the hearings before the independent commission concluded in December 2024, nothing has leaked from the proceedings—not from City, nor from the Premier League. Both sides were careful to follow the rules.

But City did not act like a club worried about the outcome. Just weeks after the hearings ended, Haaland signed a new nine-and-a-half-year contract, and during the January transfer window, the club spent around £175 million ($232 million) on new players. Since then, as the verdict seemed no closer, life went on as usual: City continued to strengthen their squad and add new global sponsors.

Friday's shocking news means all of that must be re-evaluated. Club executives spoke with senior staff on Friday evening, a few hours after the information emerged. But just as with the initial announcement of the charges in February 2023, the news caught them off guard.

On Friday afternoon, City sent a statement to The Athletic. It carried the same spirit of defiant confidence as the club's previous public statements:

"The Premier League’s proceedings are ongoing. Important stages are yet to be completed, and it is subject to strict confidentiality. Therefore, Manchester City FC's position remains consistent with the club's statement from February 2023. Over the past eight years, the club has conscientiously adhered to the established procedure with the belief that the Premier League's leadership and executive bodies will act as an independent, impartial, and fair regulator, free from the influence of interested parties."

A lot can be read between the lines—the suggestion that the process was not independent, impartial, or fair. This could be the last desperate cry of the losing side. However, it is reminiscent of the turbulent hours following UEFA's decision to ban City from the Champions League in February 2020. Back then, the news developed as if there was no doubt of the club's guilt and the punishment was deserved, but the appeal completely changed the picture.

Some around City may still be clinging to that hope, and the story may yet have a twist. This time, however, the situation feels different. Unlike the UEFA proceedings, the club presented its defence during the 12-week-long hearings. Experienced and capable lawyers laid out its strongest arguments, and the independent commission has ruled against it on almost all counts.

So, everyone connected with City must face a scenario they never believed would come to pass. Everyone knows the situation is bad, but no one knows exactly how bad. What will happen to the trophies won? Where will City play next season?

Beyond these big and very specific questions, a serious reckoning is ahead. There is a special loyalty in football that makes fans stand by their club no matter what. Here, there will be more than just the usual faith. Supporters who have always believed that Financial Fair Play was introduced to halt City's rise, and that the "red cartel" of Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester United was behind all sorts of backroom dealings, will only have their convictions strengthened and will support their club even more fiercely. Many will want to wait for City to say more or for an appeal against the decision to be heard.

But there will also be many who question the club's leadership: how could they have been so confident that this day would never come, only to now appear to have been so wrong? Some will feel they have been lied to. Loyalty to the club may, at least in the first hours and days, put many supporters in a difficult position—there is a limit to what one can turn a blind eye to.

Of course, the last thing City fans would expect is sympathy. But at the heart of it all, there is also a sadness tied to the feeling that such an outcome was never on the horizon. Over the last decade, being a City supporter has generally been wonderful. The team had one truly poor season under Guardiola, and even then, they finished third and reached the FA Cup final. Last season, they bounced back with two domestic cups, and now, under Enzo Maresca, they are top of the Premier League with a perfect record.

Before Guardiola, there were also ups and downs, but the trophies won under Roberto Mancini and Manuel Pellegrini exceeded the fans' wildest dreams. The taunts and attacks from rival supporters are one thing. Far more painful will be the feeling that they may have been misled—that they passionately defended the club from accusations that, it seems, have turned out to be true.

City fans' phones have been blowing up with gloating messages from friends who support other teams. In a more hostile environment, this gloating could become unbearable. And the reality is that everything the club has achieved over the years—the trophies and performances that elevated it to the pinnacle of world football—will not be taken seriously by anyone as long as Friday's verdict stands. That will hurt.

Fans who were at the stadium for Sergio Agüero's title-winning goal against Queens Park Rangers at 93:20 in 2012, in Istanbul for the Champions League triumph in 2023, or at any of the countless unforgettable nights over the last 10-15 years will insist that no one can take those memories away from them. It's hard to argue with that. And when the initial shock subsides, the old fan jokes about gladly returning to the Football League, where City last played in 2000, will surely sound relevant again if it comes to that.

"If we are guilty, we will go to the lower divisions, like before. We will call Paul Dickov and Mike Summerbee," Guardiola joked years ago. He mentioned club legends from a time when City was not at its current high level, and his words resonated with the fans. There are City supporters who have been through all the ups and downs who, in a way, miss the old days. The thought of an away day or two at some of the country's smaller grounds even sounds appealing, especially if it's assumed that after a tough season, the team would almost certainly return to the top flight.

Now, however, it all feels a bit more real. What if, after a potential relegation, the players needed for an immediate return are no longer at the club? It may not come to that, but at this stage, nothing can be ruled out.

There is confusion, but also sadness and, most likely, anger—regardless of who it is directed at.

It seems City is ready to continue the fight, and the supporters will surely stand behind the club. But Friday's news has changed the landscape beyond recognition.