50 Countries where Super El Niño could kill the most people: Is yours on the list?

• A new study projects approximately 857,400 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and March 2027.

• Some countries face a significantly higher projected death toll than others.

• The researchers warn that the figures are estimates, not confirmed deaths, and could change as new weather data becomes available.

The Climate Impact Lab, a research group affiliated with the University of Chicago, developed an interactive tracker to estimate how extreme temperatures associated with El Niño could affect mortality worldwide.

Its latest projections cover October 2026 to March 2027 and rank countries according to their estimated additional heat-related deaths compared with historical averages.

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The tracker ranks countries according to the additional heat-related deaths projected between October 2026 and March 2027.

Here are the 50 countries on its list, arranged from the highest to the lowest projected toll.

Source: Climate Impact Lab's El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker. Figures are estimates for October 2026–March 2027, not confirmed fatalities.

The ranking shows that the projected impact is heavily concentrated in Africa and Asia. Nigeria, India, Indonesia, Sudan, Chad, Thailand and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are among the countries with the highest estimated numbers.

Nigeria's position is particularly concerning because it is projected to experience a higher toll than India, despite the two countries having substantially different population sizes and geographical conditions.

The United States also appears on the list, with approximately 1,700 additional heat-related deaths projected. This shows the risk is not limited to developing countries, although the projected burden is considerably higher in several Global South countries.

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Researchers used statistical models to estimate how changes in temperature affect mortality in different parts of the world. Their calculations build on research published in 2022 in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, which examined the relationship between daily temperatures and all-cause mortality.

The model accounts for differences in local climates, people's vulnerability to extreme temperatures and their ability to adapt to changing conditions.

For the past months, researchers used temperature information from ERA5, a global climate reanalysis dataset. For upcoming months, they used seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' SEAS5 system.

The tracker provides estimates for approximately 3,700 regions, including individual states and provinces, across the world.

The researchers also plan to update the tracker monthly as new temperature observations and forecasts become available.

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El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm.

This warming affects atmospheric circulation and can disrupt normal weather patterns worldwide. Depending on the region, it can contribute to unusually high temperatures, droughts, reduced rainfall or excessive rainfall.

A particularly strong El Niño is commonly described as a Super El Niño. The danger is that prolonged extreme heat can place considerable pressure on the human body. It can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke, while worsening existing health problems, particularly cardiovascular and respiratory conditions.

Older people, young children, outdoor workers and people without reliable access to water, electricity or cooling facilities can be especially vulnerable.

Nigeria can take several practical steps to protect residents from extreme heat and prevent avoidable deaths. These include:

• Introduce timely heat alerts: NiMet should regularly warn the public about dangerous temperatures through radio, television, SMS and social media.

• Ensure access to drinking water: Provide safe drinking water in markets, motor parks, schools and other crowded public spaces.

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• Protect outdoor workers: Encourage employers to provide shaded rest areas, regular breaks and flexible working hours during extreme heat.

• Prepare hospitals: Equip healthcare facilities to identify and treat dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke.

• Provide public cooling spaces: Open designated cooling centres where people without reliable electricity or air conditioning can escape the heat.

• Make schools heat-safe: Improve classroom ventilation, provide drinking water and limit strenuous outdoor activities during very hot periods.

• Expand urban green spaces: Plant more trees and provide shade around roads, markets, bus stops and residential areas.

• Educate the public: Run awareness campaigns to help people recognise heatstroke symptoms and know when to seek emergency medical attention.