Sometimes I think FIBA invented these World Cup qualifiers just to make us suffer

For instance, Saša Đorđević had to wait until the very last round, and a home game against Israel, to secure qualification. Before that, we witnessed Aleksa Avramović's heroics saving us in Austria, some peculiar matches against the Greeks, and a host of other challenges. Svetislav Pešić's Serbia lost to Belgium twice, including that comical power outage at Niš's "Čair" arena, only for them to play an almost perfect second phase and ultimately achieve their goal. This scenario is common for almost every national team reliant on EuroLeague and NBA players – they consistently face tough challenges in this qualification format.

It's fair to say that Dušan Alimpijević, whose primary coaching task is to qualify us for the World Cup, has been handed a truly hot potato. The initial group, featuring Turkey, Switzerland, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, delivered several thrillers, from which we mostly managed to emerge victorious. And when the draw pitted us against Italy and Lithuania, every basketball fan in Serbia felt a shiver. Oh no, Italy! Are they going to be our undoing again?

However, after Alimpijević's squad navigated the August window with two convincing victories, one of which was against the infamous "Azzurri," it's time for the nation to feel some relief. With six wins and two losses, Serbia is finally on track to qualify for the World Cup without fans reaching for their stress medication. There's still basketball to be played, of course, but this is a pole position the "Eagles" must not – and hopefully will not – relinquish. So, what exactly happened in this window? Let's take a look together.

It's hard to explain how we developed such a trauma from the Italians. Thirty years ago, when this author was in the prime of his youth, the Italians were the only ones who occasionally managed to trip us up. We lost to them in the group stage in Spain '97, but we returned the favor in the final. We also lost in '98 in a competitively insignificant game, and I don't want to remember that semi-final match from '99.

Lately, however, Italy has truly become the bane of Serbian fans. First, they single-handedly eliminated us from the Tokyo Olympics in that nightmarish match in an empty "Arena" during the Olympic qualifying tournament we hosted. Then, they shockingly knocked us out of EuroBasket '21 (technically played in 2022), and almost spoiled our chances in Manila at the last World Cup. Fortunately, Lithuania was gracious enough to defeat the Americans in the opposing group, thus opening our path to medals.

Therefore, it wasn't easy to feel optimistic before last night's clash on the northern Adriatic, considering how recent history worked against us. It turned out our fears were unfounded, as after five minutes, it was very clear that the home team wouldn't be celebrating.

The Italians entered the game aggressively and roughly, determined to disrupt our rhythm with fouls and physicality. They targeted Nikola Jokić in the first few minutes and succeeded to some extent. But only in those first few minutes.

Coach Alimpijević and his staff stepped in and immediately plugged the holes. The initial surge was repelled, and the Italians' rough play began to backfire as our players became regular visitors to the free-throw line. With Jokić on the bench (it would later be revealed he was battling a virus), Serbia managed to pull away and establish a significant lead towards the end of the first half.

The second twenty minutes began with another surge from the hosts, led by guard Nico Mannion. Just when we thought we were watching a replay of the Belgrade tournament from the COVID era, as the former Golden State guard had "burned" us with long-range shots then too, the coaching staff intervened again. A lineup with "four lefties" (Avramović, Gudurić, Dobrić, Tanasković) and Nikola Milutinov established balance in both offense and defense, managing to pull away to a lead that was then controlled until the very end.

Indeed, it was beautiful to watch the Serbian national team calmly and veteran-like close out the game – and against the infamous Italy, our recent tormentors and creators of painful basketball wounds. Avramović and Gudurić hit crucial threes, Milutinov was a force in the paint, and the excellent contributions of Nemanja Dangubić and Arijan Lakić, who masterfully stepped in to "stop" Mannion when the game was on the line in the third quarter, should also be highlighted. Serbia completely compensated for a poor shooting night with eighteen offensive rebounds, so the question of the winner truly wasn't in doubt after a certain point.

We often discuss how challenging it is to be the head coach of Serbia, or any renowned basketball nation, as you're forced to assemble different rosters for each window and make the best of the cards you're dealt. Dušan Alimpijević has shown he's ready for such challenges – the summer windows have been archived with four significant triumphs, and now we can truly breathe easier.

Serbia wasn't the only team to shine this summer. The Turks also recorded four wins, and now only a mere theoretical possibility separates them from securing their World Cup visa, considering they are four wins ahead of fourth-placed Lithuania and have a +28 advantage from their first head-to-head encounter. Ergin Ataman remains undefeated in this qualification cycle, with Iceland being his latest victim, convincingly defeated on their home court. Last time, we were the ones who prevented them from going to the World Cup – now, hopefully, we'll head to the Middle East hand in hand.

Lithuania might not be so lucky. The simmering conflict between the federation, coach, and players took its toll in the form of a mysterious roster for the August window, where coach Rimas Kurtinaitis received responses from... well... almost no one. Among the more renowned players, only Marek Blaževič and Azuolas Tubelis answered the call, while everyone else took time off – as reliable sources suggest, most are in a quiet boycott for various reasons.

Nevertheless, even the team they assembled was enough to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina in Vilnius, so a glimmer of hope remains. The schedule doesn't favor them – they have a negative head-to-head record with Italy, and against Serbia, they'll need both victories to have any chance. Lithuania is also our next opponent in the November window, and that match will be played in the Baltics. We'll see what kind of rosters each team brings, but currently, Lithuania is still an underdog in this race.

Should they somehow miss the World Cup, it would be the first time since 2002 that the Lithuanians haven't participated in the global showcase of the best national teams – this would only deepen their already profound crisis, considering their last medal dates back to 2015, coupled with missing the last two Olympic tournaments.

As for Bosnia and Herzegovina, they too will need "more than just a game." Coach Dario Gjergja's "Dragons" failed to pull off an upset in the Lithuanian capital, and to qualify, they'll need a win against Italy on the road and a couple more favorable results – Serbia could help them if they defeat the Italians in the Belgrade rematch. Iceland has effectively said goodbye to progression, while the Italians still hold all the cards. The autumn window will provide many of the answers that are currently missing.

If Lithuania is experiencing a crisis of results, there's no adequate term for what's happening in Croatia. Our neighbors haven't won a medal in over three decades, and in recent years, they've consistently missed major tournaments. They last attended the World Cup in 2014, the Olympic Games ten years ago in Rio, and somehow even failed to qualify for the last EuroBasket after losing to Bosnia and Herzegovina in a two-game series.

That dark streak seems to have ended, as only a miracle will prevent Croatia from NOT going to the World Cup. With seven wins and only one loss, against Germany in Bonn, Tomo Mijatović's squad will likely mathematically secure their spot as early as November. One victory in their matches against Poland and the Netherlands will be enough to break their World Cup drought – a significant achievement for this team, and an opportunity to once again compete with the best.

Incidentally, Germany and Poland also have seven wins in that group – Latvia will need a miracle to reach a more favorable position with three fewer triumphs, while the Netherlands and Israel will play for sporting honor until the end of the schedule. Thus, the Latvians will be prevented from playing in the World Cup for the second time, which automatically jeopardizes their chances of qualifying for Los Angeles 2028.

What did I tell you in the first paragraph? World Cup basketball qualifiers exist to make Serbs suffer. Because if that weren't the case, how do you explain our group with Lithuanians, Italians, and Turks, and the one with France, Finland, Slovenia, Sweden, Hungary, and Estonia? I don't want to underestimate anyone, especially not Finland, of course, but let's be serious. We really got a tough draw here.

France leads the pack with seven wins, which is expected. Finland is second with two fewer wins, while the other four teams are equally battling for the third spot. At this moment, Slovenia has the advantage, but the others are not without chances, especially considering that Luka Dončić will not be playing for Slovenia for the remainder of the qualifiers.

Our former compatriots face two ultra-important matches in November, against Finland at home and Hungary away – this is their chance to build a cushion, as the final window brings France at home (though likely already qualified) and an away game in the north against the Finns. It wouldn't be good if that particular match ended up being decisive. A win in Hungary is certainly imperative, as it would secure a double triumph over that team.

I don't hide that I'm a big fan of Aleksandar Džikić's character and work. Not just because we're friends, but also because I always enjoy watching his teams. His Georgia team is particularly interesting – they are modest in talent, with a couple of extra-class players carrying the entire burden and a bunch of role players, but they fight for every possession and never give up. I really enjoyed following them at the last EuroBasket.

In this window, coach Džikašvili had two very important matches with his Caucasian mountaineers, and he resolved both in his favor. Montenegro was convincingly defeated in Tbilisi, and valuable points were won last night in Porto when the tricky Portugal was overcome. With these results, qualification is within reach, though it won't be easy until the end. But with faith in the indestructible Toko Shengelia and his friends, why not.

That group, by the way, is a complete circus. Ukraine and Spain lead with six and five wins respectively. Georgia also has five, and behind them are Portugal, Greece, and Montenegro in that order – each with a 4-4 record. It's expected that Portugal will drop out by the end, especially when Neemias Queta becomes unavailable due to NBA commitments. Montenegro will have to make something happen from their upcoming two-game series with Spain, while Greece is in the most unenviable position, which is somewhat surprising.

The Greeks, incidentally, made a real mess in the summer windows, and with three losses from four games, they put their further qualification on credit. In July, an incomprehensible loss to already eliminated Romania in Oradea was recorded, and then a scandal erupted in Athens where Portugal strolled to a convincing fifteen-point victory. When they were taught a lesson by Ukraine in Riga, even the most patient fans began to openly question whether coach Billy Spanoulis had "lost his marbles" somewhere along the way, as our American colleagues would say.

A complete disaster was avoided after a tense overtime victory against Spain in Athens, so qualification is now possible again. However, it seems likely that a positive outcome in their two-game series against Džikašvili's boys will be the deciding factor – if it comes down to that, note that the last group game is scheduled for March 1, 2027, in Tbilisi. Now that will be something... Incidentally, since Nikos Galis descended from Olympus to mortals, the Greeks have only once failed to go to the World Cup, and that was in 2002. Another extra motivation for the Georgians.

A quick glance at other FIBA zones reveals a few interesting insights. In North and South America, which participate together in qualifications, the usual suspects – USA, Canada, Brazil, Argentina – are all on the verge of the World Cup. It's possible, however, that we might see a World Cup without Puerto Rico, although their schedule favors them with upcoming matches mostly against Uruguay and Panama, so the situation could still improve. Currently, the Bahamas are higher in the standings – how likely they are to stay there without the help of NBA stars is a big question.

In Africa, there have already been a couple of unexpected results. For example, Cameroon is very close to a debut appearance, as they are currently leading their qualification group – South Sudan is hot on their heels, and someone who hasn't met expectations so far is certainly Nigeria, who are lagging behind third-placed Guinea and have a tough schedule ahead. In February, they face matches against the two group leaders, and if they don't perform there, it's possible that their last scheduled match against Cape Verde will be purely ceremonial.

The Australasian zone will likely proceed without too much drama, although it threatened not to. Australia is almost certainly there, New Zealand is close, and the same goes for Iran, Japan, China, and Lebanon. South Korea is in trouble, competing with Jordan for the best fourth-placed position – at first glance, the Koreans have an easier schedule that could turn things in their favor, and perhaps even threaten the Chinese in some scenarios.

The only pity – for me at least – is that the Philippines' qualification is in question. The "Gilas" played a poor first phase and are now in a subordinate position, needing a lot to happen and not everything depending on them. It would be a shame for the "Mundobasket" to go without a true basketball nation, as it's well known that the people of the Philippines live for the game under the hoops.