Pulse projects: Here's the likely winner of APC presidential ticket

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is in the process of choosing its presidential flag-bearer for the 2023 general election.

The convention, which kicked off on Tuesday, June 7, 2022, has now entered its second day as determined delegates cast their votes for their favourite aspirants.

2,203 votes are up for grabs for the 13 aspirants left in the race.

As of the time of writing this story, voting has ended at the Eagle Square, venue of the convention, while sorting and counting is underway.

With a winner expected to emerge in the next hours, Pulse has examined the chances of all the contestants in the race, and we have projected who might take home the coveted ticket.

As stipulated in the amended Electoral Act, only elected delegates are allowed to take part in this convention and the APC opted for three delegates per local government in Nigeria.

Bear in mind that Nigeria has 774 local governments including the FCT, so in the final analysis, 2,322 delegates are expected to cast their votes at the APC special congress.

However, only 2,203 delegates were accredited for the election and they're as follows;

North West: Kano - 132, Kaduna - 69, Katsina -102, Kebbi -63, Jigawa - 81, Sokoto - 69, Zamfara - 42.

North East: Taraba - 48, Adamawa - 63, Gombe - 33, Bauchi - 60, Borno - 81, Yobe - 51

South East: Abia - 51, Ebonyi - 39, Imo - 81, Anambra - 63, Enugu - 51.

South West: Lagos - 60, Ondo - 54, Oyo - 99, Ogun - 60, Ekiti - 48, Osun - 90.

North Central: Kwara - 48, Niger - 75, Plateau - 51, FCT - 18, Kogi - 63, Nasarawa - 39, Benue - 66.

South-South: Akwa Ibom - 93, Bayelsa - 24, Rivers - 69, Cross River - 54, Delta - 75, Edo - 57.

Going into the convention, the contest was reduced to a four horse race as the likes of Bola Tinubu, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Senate President, Ahmad Lawan and former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi were expected to share the largest chunk of the votes.

However, the convention got off to a surprising start as aspirants began to pull out of the race and threw their weights behind fellow aspirants.

Opening the floodgate of withdrawal was the former Governor of Akwa Ibom state, Godswill Akpabio, followed by Senator Ibikunle Amosun, a former Ogun state Governor.

Ekiti state Governor, Kayode Fayemi, former House of Representatives Speaker, Dimeji Bankole, Senator Ajayi Boroffice from Ondo state, Jigawa state Governor, Abubakar Badaru, and the only female aspirant, Uju Ken-Ohanenye also joined the withdrawal train.

All the aforementioned aspirants have all declared their support and endorsement for Tinubu.

The other aspirant who also withdrew from the race and endorsed Vice President Yemi Osinbajo was Nicola Felix.

The slew of defections quickly changed the whole permutations as the contest swung delicately in favour of a particular candidate.

Osinbajo

In the build up to the primary, several political analysts had predicted different pathways to victory for every frontline aspirant.

For instance, President Muhammadu Buhari was expected to pick a preferred candidate to succeed him, and Osinbajo was touted to be the anointed aspirant. That perhaps, is one of the reasons he was viewed as a frontline aspirant.

However, Buhari's move to present his preferred choice failed to sail through after several feeble attempts, which then narrowed his vice's chances of clinching the ticket.

This undoubtedly presented an uphill task for Osinbajo, who doesn't not necessarily have the needed political network and structure to puhh through his candidacy.

Amaechi

The story is the same for Amaechi whose name was also bandied about as one of the aspirants that would get the president's blessings.

Indeed, it's believed that the former Transport Minister is one of Buhari's trusted cabinet members due to his performance.

Gist also have it that Amaechi entered the race having received the grace and assurance of Buhari that he would be nominated as the party's consensus candidate, and the fact that he was given a chieftaincy title in Buhari's hometown of Daura sort of lent credence to that theory.

Also, like Osinbajo, Amaechi also doesn't have a political structure that cuts across the nation, and Buhari's failure to 'publicly' endorse him may have hampered his chances.

Lawan

Touted as the dark horse in the race, nobody actually fancied Lawan's chances until some days before the convention.

Recall that the National Chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, had on the eve of the primary told members of the National Working Committee (NMW) that the Senate President had been chosen as the consensus candidate.

Prior to that, the South-East caucus of the party, including governors of Ebonyi and Imo states, David Umahi and Hope Uzodinma respectively, had adopted Lawan as the region's consensus candidate.

These two propositions actually pushed the Senate President to the front of the line.

Tinubu

Regarded as the frontline aspirant from the onset, Tinubu is believed to have the backing of most of the 22 APC governors. A political force in his own right, Jagaban as he's fondly called, has spent the last 30 years building political networks across the country.

Even when it appeared he didn't have the support of President Buhari whom he helped to power in 2015 and 2019, Tinubu has soldiered on and managed to make alliances that could help him win the race without the presidential blessing.

Pulse had even predicted that the former Lagos State Governor would likely sweep the votes from Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Borno, Sokoto, Lagos, Osun, Niger, Adamawa, Bauchi, Ondo, Kwara, Benue, Edo, Delta and Zamfara.

As events unfold at the APC convention, Tinubu might just be coasting home to victory boosted by the endorsement of other aspirants in the race.

A look at how these endorsements possibly translate to votes may suffice here.

Akpabio - 93 delegates from Akwa Ibom state

Fayemi - 48 delegates from Ekiti state

Amosun and Bankole - 69 delegates from Ogun (some may go to Osinbajo)

Badaru - 81 delegates from Jigawa state

Boroffice and Ken-Ohanenye's endorsements may at best be good for optics as both are considered lightweights in their various states.

We can assume from the endorsements alone, that Tinubu already has a head start of about 300 votes.

If we add that to the states he was already projected to win even before the convention, the former Lagos state governor may end up with over 1,400 votes at the convention.

With only 2,203 votes to trade, and a simple majority required, it's safe to predict that Tinubu will emerge winner at the end of the contest.

Note: This is just a mere prediction, and not the official result.