APC primary: How Tinubu, Osinbajo, others may share delegates’ votes

The stage is set for the All Progressives Congress (APC)'s convention holding at the Eagle Square, Abuja on Tuesday, June 7, 2022, as delegates and party stakeholders would determine the the fate of over 20 aspirants in the race.

Conversations about the APC primaries have been full of intrigues and twists as the call for a consensus candidate was the main subject matter until late Monday night, when the matter went to rest. 

President Muhammadu Buhari had earlier canvassed for a consensus candidate ahead of the party convention, but little progress was made in that regard.

However, after the National Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu's controversial announcement of Ahmad Lawan as the party’s consensus presidential candidate, the president directed that delegates should be allowed to decide the party’s presidential candidate.

So, as the delegates decide the fate of the aspirants today, four of them have been touted as frontline contenders, who stand a chance to emerge as the party’s candidate for the 2023 presidential election.

These candidates include the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, former Governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu, Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, and the President of the Senate, Ahmed Lawan.

For the APC primaries, over 2000 delegates are expected to participate in the process that will lead to the emergence of the ruling party’s flagbearer.

Let’s analyse the chances of the four heavyweights in relation to their popularity in the six geo-political zones in the country.

Osinbajo is the Vice President and his relationship with the president is believed to be very smooth and cordial. 

The VP according to a recent poll is largely the most preferred aspirant and considering his relationship with the president, coupled with his readiness to continue the policy of the administration he has been a part of for over seven years. 

Osinbajo is from the Southwest region of Nigeria and it’s believed that his region is ready to support his ambition. 

As a Vice President, Osinbajo is also believed to have made friends with the North and is in a position to reap from some of his friends in the region.

It is also believed that votes from Nasarawa and Ogun States could shore up the VP’s chances. 

Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a National leader of the ruling party and former governor of Lagos State, he's is one of the frontline aspirants who is believed to be a political leader to many politicians in the country. 

Due to his popularity among politicians across the country, Tinubu reportedly has the support of most of the APC-controlled states. In the south, he is believed to be in absolute control of delegates from Lagos and Osun State.

According to projections by Daily Trust, Tinubu would likely sweep the votes from Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Borno, Sokoto, Lagos, Osun, Niger, Adamawa, Bauchi, Ondo, Kwara, Benue, Edo, Delta and Zamfara.

Also, out of the 13 northern governors pushing for a power shift to the South, at least 11 are said to be rooting for him.

The Minister of Transportation, Amaechi hails from the south-south region. Before the conversation on consensus candidate was laid to rest, he is one of the aspirants whom many believe enjoys Buhari’s attention and could be anointed as the president’s preferred candidate. 

As a former Governor of Rivers State, Amaechi will most likely get the votes from Rivers delegates. 

Apart from his state and maybe other South-South states, the minister seems to have been able to secure the votes of Plateau state’s delegates.

During his meeting with the state governor, Simon Lalong and stakeholders in May, Lalong promised that Amaechi would reap from Plateau because he helped him to become the state governor.

If this promise is anything to go by, the bloc votes from Plateau may prove crucial for the former Rivers Governor.

The Senate President is the only northerner among the four frontline aspirants. His position as the leader of the National Assembly has remarkably helped him in pushing his presidential ambition.

The controversial announcement of the National Chairman of the party that Lawan is the party's consensus candidate on Monday may also work in his favour.

That singular development showed that Lawan is a big contender who enjoys the support of the party’s national Chairman. 

Also, the Southeast caucus of the party seemed to have adopted him as their consensus candidate, so there's a big probability that he'd sweep the bloc votes from the five states in the region.

Add that to the votes he may also get from his state, Yobe, the Senate President may like pull a rabbit out of the hat.