Liam Lawson's blistering form creates major 2027 headache for Red Bull

Since the start of the 2026 season, Liam Lawson has established himself as one of Formula 1's standout midfield performers. He is locked in a fierce fight to keep his Racing Bulls seat for next year, with Bulgarian Formula 2 title contender Nikola Tsolov emerging as his primary challenger. Here is an analysis from motorsport.com on the unfolding situation.

The Kiwi driver has already amassed 83 points—nearly double that of the next best midfield runner, Pierre Gasly, who sits on 42. That haul isn't solely down to his brief stint with the senior Red Bull squad, where he scored only marginally more points per race than he has at Racing Bulls (4.67 compared to 4.31).

Even so, there is a strong possibility Lawson could find himself without a drive at the Faenza-based outfit—and off the Formula 1 grid entirely—for the 2027 season.

Bulgarian talent Nikola Tsolov, firmly in the hunt for the Formula 2 crown, has emerged as the frontrunner for the second Racing Bulls seat following an impressive run of six victories in the first 14 races of 2026.

While his qualifying pace has lagged behind his direct rivals and he is without a win in his last 11 outings, the 19-year-old Bulgarian trails championship leader Rafael Camara by just seven points. Camara is set to make his Formula 1 debut with Haas at this weekend's Brazilian Grand Prix, leaving Tsolov's title hopes very much alive.

Initially, against the backdrop of Arvid Lindblad's solid rookie campaign, Lawson's stint in Faenza appeared to be nearing its end. Having previously lagged behind teammates like Yuki Tsunoda, Max Verstappen, and Isack Hadjar, the New Zealander now holds a commanding advantage over Lindblad.

In qualifying head-to-heads, Lawson leads Lindblad 12-6 with a 0.072-second margin (excluding an anomalous session in Melbourne). Stripping out Sprint Shootouts, the record stands at 9-5 with a 0.027-second edge. His race pace is even more telling, clocking in at an average of 0.141 seconds per lap faster.

Over the past month, Lawson has delivered both speed and consistency. Returning to Racing Bulls following a three-race stint at Red Bull substituting for Isack Hadjar, he has outqualified his teammate at every turn by an average clean margin of 0.257 seconds.

In the last four grands prix, the New Zealander has picked up 24 points—more than either Hadjar or George Russell. Over that same stretch, Lindblad managed just a single point, hampered by a grid penalty in Malaysia and a collision with Oscar Piastri in Mexico.

Red Bull management's decision for 2027 will likely hinge on one critical question: do Lawson's recent standout performances prove he warrants another shot at the senior team?

If the answer is yes, Tsolov might have to bide his time—perhaps with a season in Japan's Super Formula, a proving ground used by several other Red Bull juniors after graduating from GP2 and Formula 2. That was the path taken by Pierre Gasly and Lawson himself before securing their returns to the F1 grid.

However, if Milton Keynes sees no viable route for Lawson into the main team, retaining him at Racing Bulls makes little sense, regardless of his impressive form. Under that scenario, Tsolov would be in line to step straight into the vacant seat.

With every points finish, questions over Lawson's future grow louder. Speaking in the media pen after the Mexico Grand Prix, he was asked once again whether it is frustrating that his 2027 seat remains unconfirmed despite his comprehensive advantage over Lindblad.

Whether that will be enough to retain his seat among motorsport's elite remains to be seen.