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In the World Cup, games are won in the final 20 minutes: will Cristiano Ronaldo be playing them?

Reality Check is the opinion column by Rui Pedro Soares, consultant
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At the 75-minute mark, the outcome of 90% of football matches is still undecided. The final 20 minutes are the most crucial. While we might expect the first two group stage games against DR Congo and Uzbekistan to be settled before the 75th minute, the match against Colombia and the five subsequent games Portugal aims to play en route to the final will likely be decided in the closing stages.

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The minutes Cristiano Ronaldo plays will reveal Roberto Martínez's strategy. Will he rely on Ronaldo to win games, or will he turn to Gonçalo Ramos, a super-sub at Paris Saint-Germain?

Who will play in those decisive final minutes, when defenses are tired and space opens up? In a match that goes to penalties, will Cristiano still be on the pitch, or will he have already been substituted?

In the last Champions League final, Dembélé, the Golden Ball winner, was substituted in the 90th minute, and Gonçalo Ramos played through extra time, scoring one of the penalties that decided the title.

What will Roberto Martínez decide? What would Cristiano Ronaldo prefer? And Gonçalo Ramos? In Euro 2016, it would have been impossible for Portugal to reach the final without Cristiano Ronaldo, yet he wasn't on the field when we won it. He was no less important, nor did he celebrate any less because of it.

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The Celebration at Marquês de Pombal

The lukewarm reaction at Marquês de Pombal to Portugal's 2022 World Cup run can be explained by what was happening within the squad. Until the quarter-finals, only a handful of cars could be heard honking. With the defeat to Morocco, the party never even started.

In any assessment of Portugal's performance in the World Cup that begins today, Cristiano Ronaldo will always be the main character. If we reach the final, it will be his crowning achievement. If we are eliminated early, it will be deemed a failure, with the blame shared only with the national team coach.

Sebastião José de Carvalho e Melo, the Marquis of Pombal, ruled as an autocrat, wielding the unlimited powers granted to him by King José I.

Recognized today for his exceptional achievements, from the reconstruction of Lisbon after the 1755 earthquake to the creation and demarcation of the world's first wine region, the Douro, time has allowed his bloodthirsty actions to be forgotten. The Távora family, falsely accused of an assassination attempt on the King, was cruelly murdered. The Marchioness of Távora was merely beheaded.

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Her husband and sons, the youngest aged 22, were subjected to torture, including having their arms and legs broken before being strangled. When King José I died, his widow, Queen Maria I, ascended the throne and ordered a review of the previous trial. The family's innocence was recognized—they had been victims of political persecution. She immediately dismissed the Marquis, who ended his days ostracized in Pombal.

The Portuguese culture of fear and subservience to those in power, followed by public expressions of disgust once they fall from grace, has deep roots.

As I live near Marquês de Pombal, I always find myself, often unintentionally, part of the championship celebrations. This year, the novelty was the spontaneous gathering of a few hundred FC Porto fans. The fact that this was met with acceptance by the 99% of Lisbon residents who are not Porto supporters confirms that the atmosphere among fans is healthy and that the football violence that existed before Euro 2004 has been eliminated. May there be a great celebration at the Marquês, with all of Portugal united in support of the national team.

The 'Inferno da Luz' will be Benfica's most important signing for 2026/27

Benfica enters the 2026/27 season with two goals: to be national champions and, 65 years later, to win a European competition again—something only possible today in seasons where they don't compete in the Champions League. If they win the Europa League, the entire squad will be immortalized in Benfica's history.

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In the season that just ended, champions FC Porto finished with 88 points, 45 of which were earned at the Dragão. Benfica finished with 80 points, with only 39 at the Luz. The final gap was 8 points—6 of which were lost in home games. Benfica actually scored 8 more goals than FC Porto (74-66) but conceded 7 more (25-18)—this difference in goals conceded is significant (+38%).

The 'Inferno da Luz' (Hell of Light) truly existed and propelled the Benfica team forward—especially at the end of each half, when the opposition was pinned back in their own box. The pressure was felt only on the pitch, as opponents could always celebrate peacefully in all sections of the Estádio da Luz.

From an 'Inferno,' the Luz has evolved into a 'Purgatory.' From a monumental chorus of whistles when Qarabag had their first shot in a game Benfica was winning 2-0 (they ended up losing 2-3), to the volcano of noise that helped secure a draw against FC Porto after being 2-0 down. This was especially true against SC Braga, when the game was tied and Benfica needed patience to score a winning goal and qualify for the Champions League.

The crowd constantly whistled whenever SC Braga had possession (their strong point) and unsettled their own team—Benfica's strategy was to capitalize on the opponent's fatigue to win in the last 15 minutes (as they had done at Alvalade).

Individually, António Silva was the one who paid the price for Otamendi's poor season and Trubin's constant inconsistency.

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Otamendi made costly errors in games that dropped points and was irresponsibly sent off in the decisive match in Famalicão. At Alvalade, for example, Trubin was having a disastrous, nervous game and had already been saved by the crossbar after a clumsy moment. After saving the penalty, his confidence grew, and the game turned.

Between the atmospheres at the Dragão and the Luz, and the defensive triangles of Diogo Costa, Bednarek, and Kiwior versus Trubin, Tomás Araújo/António Silva, and Otamendi, Benfica lost the championship.

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