How Many English Clubs Could Qualify for UEFA Competitions in 2026/27?

While the Premier League title race appears all but decided, with Arsenal well-positioned to claim the championship after a 22-year drought, the battle for European places in England is tighter than ever. A hypothetical, albeit improbable, scenario could see up to eleven (!) English teams participate in UEFA competitions next season. Let's break it down.

This heightened competitiveness stems from several factors, including the expansion of the Champions and Europa Leagues, the existence of the Conference League, and the strength of English teams, whose European success can open additional slots. Currently, the mid-table is incredibly compact, with just seven points separating Liverpool in fifth from Bournemouth in 13th.

This represents the smallest gap between these positions at the start of April since the inaugural Premier League season (1992/93). The current season already featured nine English teams in Europe, and that number could increase.

The Premier League is almost guaranteed to receive one of the two extra Champions League berths, awarded based on the previous season's European performance. With five of its nine representatives still in contention — Arsenal and Liverpool in the Champions League, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa in the Europa League, and Crystal Palace in the Conference League — securing this additional spot is nearly certain.

A more complex scenario could see seven English teams competing in UEFA's premier club competition. For this to happen, both the Reds and the Villans would need to win their respective European competitions and, simultaneously, finish outside the top five in the league. Nottingham Forest, who will face FC Porto in the Europa League quarterfinals, could also secure an elite competition spot if they win Europe's second-biggest club competition.

The English league has a minimum of two Europa League spots, allocated to the sixth-placed team and the FA Cup winner. However, if the FA Cup winner (likely Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, or Liverpool) has already qualified for UEFA competitions through their league position, that spot rolls down to the highest-ranked club not yet qualified.

Depending on the European results of Liverpool and Villa, Europa League spots could therefore extend to the eighth or ninth-placed teams in the Premier League. Additionally, if Crystal Palace wins the Conference League and finishes outside the top six in the league, they would also qualify for the Europa League.

As for the third-tier competition, the spot earned by Man. City through the English League Cup will be transferred to the highest-ranked team in the league without European qualification, as Pep Guardiola's side is set to finish in a top Premier League position. Depending on various combinations of results, this spot could be awarded to the eighth, ninth, or even tenth-placed team.

The possibility of eleven English teams in European competitions in 2026/27 — seven in the Champions League, three in the Europa League, and one in the Conference League — exists, but it is extremely remote. It would require Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Crystal Palace to win their European competitions and finish in modest positions in the domestic league.

More realistically, it's unlikely Liverpool will win the Champions League, though not impossible, and they are more likely to finish in the top five, which would significantly simplify the qualification calculations.

According to an Opta supercomputer analysis, based on ten thousand simulations, the possibility of eight Premier League clubs in European competitions is quite real.

The most probable scenario points to five teams qualifying for the Champions League, with the Europa League spot being awarded to the seventh-placed team in the league. This would occur if the FA Cup winner is a team that finishes in the top six of the league.

In this scenario, the top eight Premier League finishers would secure a spot in European competitions. Aston Villa is considered a favorite to win the Europa League, while Crystal Palace emerges as a prime candidate to conquer the Conference League. However, the probability of them not winning their respective competitions is, naturally, higher.

Outside the current top seven, Brighton is the team with the highest probability of reaching eighth place, achieving it in 16.8% of simulations. Brentford, in turn, presents itself as a strong candidate to finish in seventh position.

The race for European places extends to other teams. Everton has a good chance of qualifying, and teams like Fulham, Newcastle, Sunderland, and even Bournemouth are still in the fight. For Crystal Palace, the best hope of returning to Europe is by winning the Conference League, although they also have a chance of finishing in the top eight in the league.

Interestingly, the most favorable scenario for many of these teams would be for Liverpool and Aston Villa to win their European competitions but finish outside the qualification spots in the Premier League. If Crystal Palace also wins the Conference League, more than half of the Premier League teams next season would also be competing in Europe.

Despite everything, it remains more likely that no extra spots will be awarded through European triumphs, as the winning English teams are expected to finish in qualifying positions in the league.