Do Verstappen and Red Bull Have a Real Shot at the Title?

Red Bull Racing appears to be regressing once again, despite showing promising progress earlier in the season. Laurent Mekies, the head of the team responsible for performance, made a swift exit immediately after the Zandvoort race.

Red Bull Started with a Significant Deficit

Red Bull Racing began the Formula 1 season with a substantial performance gap. In the first four race weekends, the difference in both qualifying and race pace amounted to a full second. The hiatus caused by the postponement of the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian races offered Red Bull an opportunity to catch up.

And the team capitalized on it. With significant upgrade packages, the gap was more than halved. In both qualifying and race trim, Red Bull clearly closed in on leaders Mercedes, and consequently, rivals Ferrari and McLaren. A one-second deficit became half a second, and at some tracks, even less.

For instance, Max Verstappen nearly secured pole position for the Monaco Grand Prix, and the four-time world champion also demonstrated exceptional strength during the Austrian race weekend. In these weekends, it seemed Red Bull had found the optimal setup to such an extent that they could even become Mercedes' primary challenger.

Red Bull Faces Reality

However, Red Bull was quickly brought back to the actual pecking order. In Britain and Belgium, the gap widened again. While initial blame was placed on high-speed corners, where the RB22 struggled, it subsequently became clear this was a trend. Red Bull failed to maintain the pace of the leaders in Hungary and Zandvoort as well.

This might sound odd, as Verstappen still achieved good results. He finished second in Austria, was on track for a podium at Silverstone before retiring, secured third in Belgium, and even second in Hungary. Nevertheless, the underlying pace already hinted that a tougher period lay ahead for Verstappen.

In Britain, Verstappen was in a strong position, but the race pace of both Antonelli and the two Ferrari drivers was superior. The same scenario unfolded in Belgium. This time, his teammate Isack Hadjar's race pace was also better (with multiple pit stops and fresher tires), yet Verstappen still found himself on the podium. These podiums, purely based on speed, were difficult to justify.

In Hungary, the situation was most striking. Verstappen was sixth in terms of track pace, half a second slower per lap than race winner Lando Norris. Despite this, to his great surprise, Verstappen finished second. The Dutchman was aided by Ferrari's strategic decisions, Antonelli's issues, and Oscar Piastri's retirement to secure that podium. Red Bull hadn't suddenly found a magical setup.

Verstappen Masks the RB22's True Performance

This trend continued in Zandvoort. There, Verstappen was once again significantly slower in qualifying than his rivals from other top teams, and his race subsequently ended prematurely. In race pace, Liam Lawson ultimately lacked a second per lap compared to the leaders. The picture was no different when Verstappen participated in the sprint. He finished seventh in pure speed, only ahead of Hamilton.

Thus, the upward trend has vanished. In recent races, Verstappen and Red Bull have finished so high primarily due to errors by others. With Ferrari, it was mainly strategic blunders; with McLaren and Mercedes, it was retirements. In terms of pure speed, Red Bull is still only the fourth-best team, and they can truly forget about the title this year.

As earlier in the year, Laurent Mekies left the circuit prematurely. Similar to what happened in China, for example, the Red Bull team principal only spoke to television broadcasters before heading to the airport. This time, written media were informed in advance by Red Bull's communications team. Mekies reportedly had to leave the track earlier than planned. It's curious that this continues to happen after a weaker result for Red Bull. Coincidence?