Data is Conclusive: Cooling Breaks Significantly Impact Matches

The three-minute "cooling breaks" introduced for the World Cup have drawn significant criticism. Beyond the sharp condemnation of their marketing aspect, many are expressing dissatisfaction with the sporting consequences of these interruptions. These concerns are further supported by a statistical analysis from the Spanish newspaper "El País."

"These three minutes change football... No matter which team is in a strong period, three minutes interrupt everything," noted Didier Deschamps after France's victory in a friendly against Brazil in March. And apparently, the French national team coach was right. According to colleagues at "El País," 78% of the cooling breaks since the start of the 2026 World Cup have impacted the dynamics of the matches.

To reach this percentage, the Spanish publication analyzed the 56 game stoppages in the first 28 matches of the tournament, relying on data provided by Driblab: expected threat (xT). This metric allows for determining which team is closer to scoring a goal minute by minute, based on ball possession, field position, passes, and dribbling.

In detail, 24 of the breaks led to a shift in momentum, while another 20 caused the team that was dominating before the three-minute pause to lose control of the game.

For example, in the Brazil-Morocco match (1-1), Vinicius Junior's teammates were dominating before the first break. However, this trend reversed in the minutes following the restart. The same occurred in the second half. In the England-Croatia match (4-2), the cooling break at the air-conditioned stadium in Dallas allowed the Croats to take the initiative, despite the "Three Lions" having controlled proceedings beforehand.

These figures provide additional arguments for opponents of the introduction of "hydration breaks" at this World Cup. During the first week of the competition, these interruptions were often met with boos, as football fans complained that the initiative provides broadcasters with more advertising slots and, consequently, additional revenue, similar to the most popular sports in the USA.

"Playing four quarters instead of two changes the very concept of football," lamented Marcelo Bielsa this Sunday. "The consequences this might have on the sport were not considered, but rather other types of effects," added the Argentine coach of Uruguay.