ADC: 4 coalition aspirants plotting Tinubu's downfall in 2027

Although the 2027 general elections are still nearly two years away, opposition politicians, particularly those seeking to remove President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) from office, have begun preparations in earnest.

Last week, major opposition leaders coalesced under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the political party they adopted ahead of the next general elections.

Consisting of familiar faces, including its progenitor, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, and several other politicians who have criss-crossed different parties in recent memory, the coalition threw down the gauntlet for the ruling party.

All the figureheads in the movement were aligned by one ambition, and this they succinctly enunciated: get Tinubu out of office in 2027.

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However, as soon as the coalition was formed, the key stakeholders began plotting to position themselves for the presidential ticket. While a couple of them have publicly declared their intentions, others have simply gone into a stealth mode.

Regardless of each individual's approach, movements in the political landscape suggest that the fight for the ADC ticket is intensifying, and things may become more interesting as we approach the primary election deadline.

While Nigerians wait and the ruling party holds its breath for the coalition to make its move, we examine four key aspirants who might receive the coalition's nod to confront Tinubu in the 2027 election.

The former Vice President has become a regular feature in Nigerian presidential election contests. Having finished second in his last attempt, which he contested under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku midwifed this coalition, with the conviction that the alliance offers the opposition the best chance to defeat the incumbent President.

He probably acted upon the popular opinion that divided opposition helped Tinubu's course in 2023, as they collectively threw away over 14 million votes. In contrast, the eventual winner only recorded over eight million votes.

Atiku's strategy relies on securing a large number of votes from his northern region and a decent showing in the south, where Tinubu hails from.

Although he's yet to declare his intention publicly, the former Vice President hasn't ruled himself out either. After the 2023 election, Atiku affirmed that "I'm not going anywhere," indicating a strong desire to run for the presidency again in 2027, when he will be 80 years old.

Some stakeholders have also been advocating that the coalition choose a northern candidate, proposing this as the game-changer, considering the reported growing resentments toward Tinubu from that region.

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While the premise of the argument may sound believable, the underlying intention remains a ploy to create a sellable narrative for Atiku's candidacy.

With his experience in primary politics and strong presence in the coalition, Atiku might be the man to beat for the ADC presidential ticket. However, his records in political contests are not unblemished, so there could be a big shocker on the card.

Since his defeat in 2023, Obi has remained a consistent voice of strong opposition, strengthening the belief that he will stake another claim in 2027.

The former Labour Party presidential aspirant didn't even mince words when asked in a recent interview. "I will run as a presidential candidate in 2027," he replied after being asked if he's made a deal to be Atiku's running mate.

The former Anambra State Governor also stated that he's committed to the coalition's course, but refused to deny his membership in the Labour Party. This simply means Obi is not putting all his eggs in one basket.

Apart from this suspected double play, Obi has been sending signals to the coalition on why he should be trusted with the ticket. In the same interview referenced above, he reiterated his earlier statement that he's content with serving one term as president.

This is undoubtedly a deft move to counter the southern sentiment that Tinubu should be allowed to complete his eight-year term in office. While his remarks may resonate with some people, other stakeholders have insisted that a fellow southerner stands no chance against the incumbent President.

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Another challenge Obi's one-term pledge portends is that it leaves Atiku at a big disadvantage due to the age factor. By 2031, the former Vice President will be 84 years old and public sentiment might be swayed against an ageing president.

In all, one thing is clear at this moment: Obi's eyes are firmly on the coalition ticket, and he's not making a secret out of it.

Another person who has made no secret of his intention to contest the coalition presidential ticket is Rotimi Amaechi, a former Governor of Rivers State and Transportation Minister under the immediate past government of Muhammadu Buhari.

Amaechi is one of the vociferous opposition voices to President Tinubu, a man he ran against for the APC presidential ticket in 2022. Though Tinubu recorded a wide margin victory in the contest, Amaechi gave a good account of himself, finishing a distant second, which saw him triumph over the likes of then-incumbent Vice President Prof. Yemi Osinbajo and Senate President, Ahmad Lawan.

This impressive outing may have strengthened the former Minister's resolve and conviction to put himself forward as a viable alternative to Tinubu in 2027.

He has since dumped his old stomping ground for the coalition. Like Obi, Amaechi has also expressed readiness to be a one-term president to balance out the unwritten agreement of southern and northern rotational presidency.

However, political analysts have observed that Amaechi's re-emergence is also a decoy for him to regain political relevance, especially in Rivers, where the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike, is currently calling the shots.

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Though former allies, Wike stopped Amaechi from installing his predecessor in 2015, ever since, the PDP chieftain has exerted his influence and continues to dominate Rivers politics.

But it was his alliance with candidate Tinubu in 2023 that further weakened Amechi's base. With his ministerial power gone and no real influence in power decisions in the oil-rich state, the former Transportation Minister saw the coalition as an opportunity to reestablish himself and, perhaps, also pay Tinubu back in his coin, all in one fell swoop.

Meanwhile, another school of thought believes Atiku clinching the coalition ticket is inevitable, therefore, leaving the likes of Amaechi and Obi to jostle for the vice presidential slot.

What ever the case is, the former Rivers Governor has his work cut out for the coalition presidential ticket, as it represents a means of revival for his flailing political relevance.

Former Kaduna State Governor Nasiru El-Rufai's name has also been mentioned as a potential candidate for the coalition's presidential ticket, although he has yet to express an interest publicly.

However, the former FCT Minister has all the motivation in the world to give it a try. It's an open secret that El-Rufai played a role, the significance of which can only be determined by people with knowledge of the inner workings of the APC, in Tinubu's emergence as the APC candidate in 2022.

He also stood by the former Lagos State Governor in the general election, even though he failed to deliver the majority of votes in his state. However, things have since gone south between the duo.

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With Tinubu making an about-turn after nominating El-Rufai for a ministerial position, the former Kaduna Governor may be out to extract his own pound of flesh. At the same time, there's a little matter of Governor Uba Sani, his successor in Kaduna State.

Having felt betrayed by a man whom he helped to power in 2023, El-Rufai might also pull his weight to settle a score with Sani by ensuring he doesn't get re-elected and this might be a great factor to fight for the ADC ticket.

Local politics aside, words from the grapevine have it that the former FCT Minister is eyeing the presidency in 2031, so he won't turn down the chance that makes the dream realisable four years earlier than he envisaged.