Zvezda Can Go Directly to the Playoffs! Here's the Calculation for the Red and Whites' Ideal Scenario

Following recent results, Olympiacos has secured a playoff spot, while Fenerbahçe and Valencia, with 23 wins each, are very close to achieving the same. It's highly probable that 23 victories will be enough for direct qualification, but a scenario exists where multiple teams, including Crvena Zvezda, could finish the season with 22 wins, creating a complex tie-breaker situation.

To even remain in contention for a direct playoff berth, Crvena Zvezda must win both of their remaining games – against ASVEL and Real Madrid on the road.

Based on the current standings, as many as seven teams could theoretically finish with 22 wins: Hapoel, Real Madrid, Panathinaikos, Zalgiris, Barcelona, Crvena Zvezda, and Monaco. However, since Barcelona and Monaco play each other, both cannot achieve the same number of wins, meaning the tie-breaker group could consist of a maximum of six teams.

There are two main scenarios involving a six-team tie. In both cases, Hapoel, Zalgiris, Real Madrid, Panathinaikos, and Crvena Zvezda would be part of the group, with the sixth team being either Monaco or Barcelona.

For Crvena Zvezda, the more favorable scenario is for Monaco to be in the tie-breaker group, as Zvezda holds a 2-0 head-to-head record against them. In that instance, Zvezda would not only make the playoffs but would astonishingly secure fourth place. In the mini-league of that group, the Red and Whites would be top with a 7-3 record, matching Panathinaikos, but with a superior point differential. Zvezda would finish fourth, Panathinaikos fifth, and Zalgiris, in sixth, would also qualify directly.

If Barcelona were in the group instead of Monaco, the situation becomes significantly tougher. Zvezda would then only be able to reach sixth place if they defeat Real Madrid in Madrid by eight or more points. When it comes to smaller tie-breaker groups, Zvezda benefits from any scenario that does not include Zalgiris and Barcelona.

For this currently unlikely scenario to become a reality, Zvezda needs help from other results. Besides their mandatory win against ASVEL away, the Red and Whites would benefit from Valencia defeating Panathinaikos, Olympiacos beating Hapoel, and Monaco overcoming Barcelona.

As an added bonus, victories for Partizan over Zalgiris in Belgrade and Fenerbahçe over Real in Istanbul would also be favorable.