Playoff Pathways: Only One Scenario Guarantees Crvena Zvezda a Direct Spot!

Before delving into these calculations, it's crucial to note they are contingent on Hapoel losing to Maccabi in their rescheduled game on Sunday. If Hapoel wins that match, any scenario involving the Israeli team automatically becomes void.

Now, let's get down to business.

Let's first examine the most complex scenario where Crvena Zvezda, with a 22-16 record, finds itself in a five-team tie. There are two such situations: one involving Hapoel and another with Barcelona.

Scenario with Hapoel (Five teams at 22-16, and Zvezda defeats Real)

Hapoel would need to lose to both Maccabi and Monaco. Žalgiris would have to lose to Paris at home. Panathinaikos must defeat Efes. Monaco needs to beat Hapoel.

In this case, a five-team tie forms, with the standings as follows:

Panathinaikos 5-3
Žalgiris 5-3
Crvena Zvezda 5-3
Hapoel 3-5
Monaco 2-6

Furthermore, in a tie with PAO and Žalgiris, Crvena Zvezda would be the weakest, finishing in eighth position.

Scenario with Barcelona (Crvena Zvezda loses to Real)

Žalgiris must lose to Paris at home. Panathinaikos must lose to Efes at home. Monaco must lose to Hapoel at home. Barcelona must defeat Bayern at home.

In this case, a five-team tie forms, with the standings as follows:

Žalgiris 5-3
Panathinaikos 5-3
Crvena Zvezda 4-4
Monaco 3-5
Barcelona 3-5

Crvena Zvezda would also finish in eighth position in this tie.

1. A tie involving Hapoel, Žalgiris, and Panathinaikos is theoretically impossible, as Monaco would then defeat Hapoel and automatically join the tie. Therefore, any tie including Hapoel also includes Monaco, a scenario we've already covered.

2. The only possible four-team tie occurs if Crvena Zvezda loses to Real. In this situation, Crvena Zvezda, Panathinaikos (if they lose to Efes), Monaco (if they lose to Hapoel), and Barcelona (if they beat Bayern) would be tied.

In that case, the situation is as follows:

All four teams would have an identical 3-3 record, with point differential being the tie-breaker. Crvena Zvezda would have a superior point differential against all three teams, securing the seventh position!

1. Hapoel, Žalgiris, Crvena Zvezda (if Crvena Zvezda defeats Real)

Žalgiris 3-1
Crvena Zvezda 2-2
Hapoel 1-3

Crvena Zvezda finishes in SIXTH position!

2. Panathinaikos, Crvena Zvezda, Monaco (if Crvena Zvezda loses to Real, as in all subsequent three-team scenarios)

Crvena Zvezda 3-1
Panathinaikos 2-2
Monaco 2-2

Crvena Zvezda finishes in SEVENTH position and hosts Panathinaikos! Another condition for this tie to occur is for Barcelona to lose to Bayern.

3. Panathinaikos, Crvena Zvezda, Barcelona

Barcelona 3-1
Crvena Zvezda 2-2
Panathinaikos 2-2

Crvena Zvezda finishes in NINTH position and hosts tenth-placed Panathinaikos!

4. Barcelona, Crvena Zvezda, Monaco

Monaco 2-2
Crvena Zvezda 2-2
Barcelona 2-2

Crvena Zvezda finishes NINTH and hosts Barcelona! Point differential is the deciding factor in this scenario, which occurs if Panathinaikos defeats Efes in the final round.

It's highly improbable for Crvena Zvezda to share a record with only one other team. This could only happen with:

1. Žalgiris if:

Crvena Zvezda defeats Real, Hapoel beats Monaco, Žalgiris loses to Paris, and Panathinaikos loses to Efes. In this case, Crvena Zvezda finishes behind Žalgiris in seventh place and hosts Monaco, who has a better head-to-head record against both Barcelona and Panathinaikos.

2. Panathinaikos if:

Crvena Zvezda loses to Real, Monaco beats Hapoel, Barcelona loses to Bayern, and Panathinaikos loses to Efes. Then Crvena Zvezda is eighth because they have a better head-to-head record against Panathinaikos and will play away against Monaco.

3. Monaco if:

Crvena Zvezda loses to Real, Panathinaikos beats Efes, Monaco loses to Hapoel, and Barcelona loses to Bayern. Then Crvena Zvezda is eighth and travels to Panathinaikos, as they have a better record than Monaco.

4. Barcelona if:

Crvena Zvezda loses to Real, Panathinaikos beats Efes, Monaco defeats Hapoel, and Barcelona beats Bayern. Then Crvena Zvezda is tenth and travels to Barcelona.

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