Blackout persists as Adelabu’s 6,000MW target misses three deadlines

When Adebayo Adelabu became Nigeria’s Minister of Power in August 2023, he made a bold promise: the country would hit 6,000 megawatts of electricity generation by the end of that same year. He even said the lights would finally come on. Nigerians, however, had heard these kinds of promises before—the power sector has been a disappointment for decades under every administration—so they waited with a mix of hope and skepticism.

But they’re still waiting. According to the Nigerian Independent System Operator, the current electricity supply hovers around just 3,331 megawatts. That’s barely enough to keep the lights on in a city the size of Lagos, let alone power a nation of over 200 million people.

This shortfall is taking a real toll. Families are struggling to cope with extreme heat, and businesses are losing money. The World Bank even estimates that power outages cost Nigeria about $29 billion every year—that’s roughly 10 percent of the country’s GDP.

During a visit by the Senate Committee on Power, led by Senator Eyinnaya Abaribe, Adelabu said the federal government had solid plans to push generation up to 6,000 megawatts by the end of 2024. He kept stressing that his ministry was fully committed to hitting that target by December 2024. But, once again, it didn’t happen.

By December 28, 2024, the highest generation reached was 5,229 megawatts. The absolute peak ever recorded was 5,801.6 megawatts—and that’s still shy of the promised 6,000.

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Later on, Adelabu had to admit the target wasn’t met. He pointed to vandalism that damaged key power transmission equipment as the reason for the failure.

“Indeed, a promise of 6,000 megawatts was made, and we believed it was achievable based on our efforts. Unfortunately, the actions of vandals set us back. We are working hard to ensure more supply to the grid,” Bolaji Tunji, the special adviser on strategic communication and media relations to the minister, said on December 29, 2024.

The target was pushed to 2025. On March 2, 2025, Nigeria hit a peak generation of 6,003 MW, the highest in the country’s history. The minister’s communications team announced this with great excitement.

Tunji said Nigeria also achieved a peak generation evacuation of 5,801.84 MW and a daily maximum energy output of 128,370.75 megawatt-hours.

“On March 2, 2025, Nigeria achieved a record available power generation of 6,003 megawatts, the highest in the nation’s history,” he announced.

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Sadly, the country could not maintain this small accomplishment. Power generation capacity has since dropped to below 5,500 MW. The celebration was short-lived.

Subsequent data from the Nigerian Independent System Operator and other agencies showed that generation has hovered around 5,000 MW since then.

By the time the third deadline arrived, a general 2025 target, electricity supply from the national grid to distribution companies was 3,331 MW. The Nigerian Integrated System Operator and electricity distribution companies blamed gas shortages as generation fluctuated between 2,000 and 3,900 MW.

This year, power distribution companies have repeatedly apologised to their customers, promising relief that has not arrived.

“I want to apologise to Nigerians, officially now, as the minister of power, for this temporary issue that is causing hardship, especially during this dry season when there is so much heat everywhere,” Adelabu said two weeks ago at a press conference in Abuja.

“Businesses are being impacted, schools have been affected, and industries are suffering. We don’t want to be in this situation, but it is caused by factors beyond our control.”

The minister assured Nigerians that relief was on the way, giving a two-week timeline for an improvement in supply.

“I can tell you, with the committee we have set up and commitments from gas suppliers, plus the timeline for the repair of the gas pipelines, we should start seeing improvements in supply in two weeks. Two weeks!” Adelabu emphasised.

However, as the two-week timeline passed, manufacturers, retailers, and small businesses surveyed by BusinessDay reported that the burden of self-generation continues to eat into their profits and stifle growth.

Gas-fired plants, which provide most of Nigeria’s electricity, often run below capacity due to supply issues and pricing disputes.

At the same time, the transmission network isn't robust enough to handle higher demands, leading to frequent grid failures and situations where power output has to be cut back.

Meanwhile, distribution companies are grappling with financial troubles and gaps in their infrastructure, which only makes the entire system more vulnerable. This sets up a cycle where improvements in one area get canceled out by problems in another.

For everyday people, these issues have tangible effects. In big cities, lengthy power outages have practically become the norm. Families are now spending more of their income on backup energy options. Out in rural areas, getting reliable grid electricity is still a struggle, which only deepens the divide in economic opportunities.

Businesses are feeling the pinch even more. Manufacturers, especially, see unreliable power as a major roadblock, often resorting to running generators for extended periods just to keep their operations running. These added costs have pushed prices up and hurt their ability to compete both locally and internationally.

The government has put forward a set of reforms designed to address these challenges, including plans to draw in private investment, tweak pricing models, and strengthen regulatory oversight. However, progress has been inconsistent, and investors remain hesitant.