More Power Outages Likely as Nigeria’s Electricity Generation Falls Below 4,000MW

Nigeria’s electricity supply has taken another hit. Power generation on the national grid dropped below the 4,000-megawatt mark early Thursday, raising concerns that electricity shortages across the country could worsen in the coming days.

According to the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO), total generation stood at 3,940.53 megawatts at 5:00 a.m. on Thursday. The drop, the agency said, is largely due to persistent gas supply shortages affecting thermal power plants.

In a statement titled “Gas Constraints Lead to Temporary Reduction in Power Generation,” the grid operator said the system was already under strain before dawn.

At 5:00 a.m., electricity generation had already fallen below expected levels because several plants were receiving less gas than required to operate.

Between 6:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m., a number of generating units were forced to shut down completely after the gas supply to the plants became insufficient. This shutdown removed about 292 megawatts from the grid in just a couple of hours.

The result is what many Nigerians know too well: longer outages, unstable voltage, and more reliance on generators.

The underlying issue isn’t the power plants themselves. It’s the fuel.

Nigeria’s electricity system depends heavily on gas-fired thermal plants, which provide more than 70 per cent of the electricity sent to the national grid. These plants require enormous volumes of natural gas every day.

According to NISO’s operational data, thermal power plants connected to the grid need about 1,588.61 million standard cubic feet of gas per day to operate at full capacity.

But the gas actually being supplied right now is far lower. Only 652.92 million standard cubic feet per day is currently reaching the plants.

That’s roughly 40 per cent of the required volume. The gap between what is needed and what is available is the main reason electricity generation keeps falling.

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The current drop didn’t come out of nowhere. Just a few weeks ago, the system operator had already issued a warning about declining generation levels.

In February 2026, power generation had fallen to around 4,300 megawatts due to similar gas supply issues.

Even then, the figure was considered low for a country with more than 200 million people. Now the latest reading, 3,940.53 megawatts, shows the situation has deteriorated further.

Nigeria is not short on gas. In fact, the country holds some of the largest natural gas reserves in Africa.

The challenge lies in getting that gas to power plants consistently. Several structural problems affect the gas-to-power supply chain.

One of the biggest is pipeline vandalism, which regularly disrupts gas transportation infrastructure.

When pipelines are damaged or shut down for repairs, supply to power stations can fall sharply. There are also payment disputes within the electricity market.

Power generation companies sometimes struggle to pay gas suppliers because of broader financial issues in the electricity value chain.

When payments slow down, gas deliveries may also slow down.

Another factor is the global energy market.

Gas exporters can often earn more selling gas internationally than supplying it domestically, creating pressure on local supply.

Together, these issues form a cycle that has been difficult to break.

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The system operator says it is working with electricity producers and gas suppliers to stabilise the situation.

According to NISO, discussions are ongoing with generation companies and gas providers to restore fuel supply to affected power plants.

The agency also said operational measures are being taken to maintain stability on the national grid, even with reduced generation capacity.

Grid stability matters. If supply drops too quickly or unpredictably, the entire grid can collapse, a situation that has happened several times in recent years.

Managing that risk is now one of the operator’s immediate priorities.

For Nigerians, the effects are already becoming noticeable. Lower generation means less power available for distribution companies to deliver to homes and businesses.

In practical terms, that can translate into:

• Longer power outages

• Lower voltage levels

• More reliance on private generators

Nigeria already ranks among countries with the highest levels of generator use, with businesses and households frequently turning to diesel or petrol generators to maintain power supply.

Those generators, however, come with their own costs, both financially and environmentally.

However, NISO has said that "The System Operator continues to take necessary operational measures to maintain grid stability while managing the impact of the reduced generation on the network. NISO remains committed to keeping stakeholders and the public informed on developments affecting the national grid,” the statement concluded.