Is the NBA MVP Race Already Decided? Here's Where Jokic and Wemby Stand, Seven Days Before the Regular Season Ends

With just seven days remaining in the 2025-26 NBA regular season, the MVP race appears to be all but decided. Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has seen his odds shorten from 1.15 to an incredible 1.05 since Friday, giving him a commanding lead over Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. Luka Doncic (hamstring injury) is sidelined for at least the remainder of the regular season, leading top sportsbooks to remove his odds from contention.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the MVP favorite for much of the season, and his odds further tightened on Friday after ESPN's Tim Bontemps released his third and final major straw poll of the season. SGA garnered 88 first-place votes, with no other player receiving more than eight.

This significantly diminished the chances of San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama, who now sits at 10.00 odds after San Antonio's loss to Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. Arguments for Wembanyama largely hinged on San Antonio overtaking OKC for the top spot in the West, but Sunday's defeat leaves the Spurs three wins behind Oklahoma City with only four games left to play.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 1.05
   

2. Victor Wembanyama: 10.00
   

3. Nikola Jokic: 76.00
   

4. Jaylen Brown: 301.00

Judging by these odds, SGA seems to have secured the accolade. The Thunder star is averaging 31.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game, shooting an impressive 55.2% from the field and 38.3% from three-point range.

Oklahoma City has already notched 62 wins this season, and SGA has managed to keep the team in a leading position in the NBA despite Jalen Williams (ankle, hamstring) missing a significant portion of the regular season.

Wembanyama (a Defensive Player of the Year favorite) and Jokic (averaging a triple-double) also present impressive cases, but it's clear that voters wanted to see someone truly dethrone SGA to change their minds. Jokic and the Nuggets trail Oklahoma City by 12 wins, while Wemby – despite leading the Spurs to a better-than-expected record – hasn't had the same offensive impact as players like SGA, Doncic, or Jokic.

Unless there's a complete collapse by the Thunder in the final stretch, the MVP race is finally over after weeks of Doncic, Jokic, and Wemby rotating in the second spot behind Gilgeous-Alexander.

SGA has a significant opportunity to join an exclusive club of Hall of Famers who have defended their MVP title. Only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (twice), Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, LeBron James (twice), Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jokic have managed to win MVP awards in consecutive seasons.