Is Rafael Leão at Risk for the World Cup Opener? What the Regulations Say

Rafael Leão's direct red card just before halftime in Portugal's friendly against Chile at Jamor has raised some concerns for the National Team, with the 2026 World Cup fast approaching.

Following this match and before the FIFA tournament kicks off, the Seleção still has one more friendly scheduled against Nigeria on Wednesday in Leiria. But what do the regulations say in such cases? Is the AC Milan forward free to face DR Congo in the first group stage match of the competition taking place in the United States, Mexico, and Canada? Let's break it down.

The attacker is expected to be available for the match against the Congolese, barring an exceptional decision from FIFA's Disciplinary Committee. This is because, under the regulations, the sending off occurred in a friendly match, and typically, sanctions applied in this context are served in games of the same nature (in this case, friendlies), without automatically carrying over to official final tournament matches.

The FIFA Disciplinary Code stipulates that a red card incurs at least a one-match suspension, a number that can increase depending on the severity of the infraction. However, the basic rule distinguishes between competitive and non-competitive matches: expulsions in official games (qualifiers or final tournaments) result in suspensions to be served in subsequent official matches of the same competition; infractions committed in friendlies, however, tend to result in suspensions also in friendly matches, unless the conduct is deemed particularly serious.

In Leão's case, all indications are that the suspension will be applied to the friendly against Nigeria, which allows Roberto Martínez to count on the winger for the opener against DR Congo, provided there is no reclassification of the infraction or an increase in the penalty by FIFA.

FIFA, in any case, maintains a margin of discretion that allows it to increase, reduce, or even suspend a penalty, based on an analysis of the referee's report and any submissions made by the federation.

Thus, the most probable scenario is Portugal without Leão against the Nigerians, but with the forward back for the World Cup kick-off, having served the one-match suspension resulting from the red card received in the friendly against Chile.

Interestingly, a similar situation occurred with Locadia in Curaçao. The forward's expulsion against Scotland raised doubts about a potential absence from the start of the World Cup, given it was for violent conduct in a preparatory match.

However, the application of the FIFA Disciplinary Code – which distinguishes between official and friendly matches – ultimately limited the sanction to a friendly game, specifically against Aruba, keeping Locadia eligible for Curaçao's first World Cup match.