Is Manchester City Now the Premier League Title Favorite?

Erling Haaland's winning goal, the thunderous roar from the stands, the reaction after the final whistle. Sunday's result at the Etihad Stadium felt like the moment the momentum in the Premier League title race definitively shifted towards Manchester City after their monumental 2-1 victory over leaders Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta's side still sits atop the league, but their grip is now tenuous, with their nine-point lead whittled down to just three within a week. City also has a game in hand and could leapfrog Arsenal if they defeat Burnley at Turf Moor on Wednesday evening.

Pep Guardiola's team typically hits peak form in the final two months of the season, and they are once again gathering pace.

However, the Spaniard himself downplayed the significance of the massive win, stating: "We still have hope. But the truth is, we've had a terrible schedule and we're not at the top of the table. For now, they are the best team in England, but we've extended our chance to fight until the end. They are incredibly competitive, we know that. But at the same time, so are we. The table speaks for itself. They were the best. Congratulations to the lads, but we must not lose focus."

Momentum is now firmly with City – they've lost only once in their last 20 league matches, while Arsenal is starting to falter, with just one win in their last six games across all competitions.

History also shows City's exceptional strength in this part of the campaign, and their results in April under Guardiola are fantastic news for their fans and unsettling for any Arsenal supporter.

This month remains Guardiola's favorite, with his win percentage now at 71.4% – averaging 2.53 points per game, while Arteta continues to struggle in his weakest month, collecting 1.48 points per game with a 39.5% success rate.

The odds – according to Opta statisticians – are still heavily in Arsenal's favor, but their chances have dropped from 97% to 73% in just a week, while City's probability of winning the title has surged from 3% to 27%.

This season, Arsenal has led the league for 206 days, while City has been at the top for only six days – and that was in the very first week of the season. Since Arteta took over Arsenal in 2019, City has won the Premier League four times, but it is Arsenal who has been in first place for a longer cumulative period – 537 days compared to City's 453.

Last weekend might have given genuine hope to City's players and fans after Arsenal suffered a shocking home defeat to Bournemouth, and Guardiola's side capitalized with a dominant victory against Chelsea.

With six games remaining for their team, they will now truly begin to believe that a seventh top-flight title in nine years is entirely achievable.

While Arsenal's players slumped at the end, City's gathered in a huddle, and the fans in the stands boisterously celebrated securing three incredibly important points.

The away supporters quickly exited the Etihad Stadium, while the loyal City fans bounced to the rhythm of Milky's "Just The Way You Are."

This song is becoming the soundtrack to City's season, with its lyrics re-worked into memorable chants for new signings Ryan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo.

"The celebration after the final whistle seemed a bit excessive to me," former Premier League midfielder Danny Murphy told BBC Sport. "If you're an Arsenal player, you're thinking: 'Hold on, we're still ahead.' It was a very boisterous celebration, I was surprised.

I understand it in the heat of the moment, I've been in those games where you celebrate too much. It really looked like they were celebrating the title. After winning that game as a team, they probably told themselves they now have a chance. Even a draw would have favored Arsenal, so I understand them."

Haaland's second-half winner sparked a deafening roar after Cherki had given the hosts the lead, and Kai Havertz had equalized in the interim following a mistake by Gianluigi Donnarumma.

Both teams still hold their destiny in their own hands in this captivating title race – if City wins all their remaining matches, it might not be enough, as Arsenal could surpass them on goal difference. On paper, Arsenal's remaining schedule appears more favorable, as their five remaining matches are against teams in the bottom half of the table.

City captain Bernardo Silva called the victory "very big," adding: "It puts us in a position where if we win our postponed game, we'll be level on points. Two weeks ago, that scenario didn't seem very likely. I'm happy that we can be level."