How Spain Approaches Penalties and What Martínez Brings to the Table

Should the 2026 World Cup final between Argentina and Spain remain deadlocked after regular time and extra time, a penalty shootout looms as a highly probable and decisive scenario. In such a situation, Luis de la Fuente's squad has a recent history that offers clear insights into their penalty takers, preferences, and vulnerabilities. Their last two penalty shootouts occurred in the 2025 UEFA Nations League – first eliminating the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, then losing to Portugal in the final.

Against the Dutch, "La Roja" prevailed in the shootout, with Mikel Merino, Ferran Torres, Aleix García, Alex Baena, and Pedri all converting their spot-kicks. Lamine Yamal was the sole player to miss. On the opposing side, Unai Simón once again proved his penalty-saving prowess, denying Donyell Malen's crucial attempt before Pedri sealed their progression. These performances highlighted a recurring trend in this cycle: a prevalence of low, well-placed shots with minimal run-up, prioritizing accuracy over power.

Three months later, in the final against Portugal, Spain again faced a penalty shootout, but this time the outcome was different. Mikel Merino, Alex Baena, and Isco successfully converted their penalties, but Álvaro Morata failed to beat Diogo Costa, a miss that proved decisive in their 3-5 defeat.

Regardless of the results, an analysis of the current squad confirms a trend: Oyarzabal, Borja Iglesias, Grimaldo, Dani Olmo, Pedro Porro, Mikel Merino, and Lamine Yamal boast high career conversion rates from the spot. Rodri, Pedri, Nico Williams, and Ferran Torres also present reliable alternatives. Furthermore, De la Fuente typically avoids a fixed order, instead adapting the sequence based on the players who finish the match on the field.

Individual statistics help identify trends, though the outcome of a penalty shootout is never solely dependent on numbers. Context, physical fatigue, and pressure can alter any prediction. Nevertheless, Spain's last two penalty shootouts offer valuable insight into their specialists and provide crucial information for a World Cup final that could be decided from the spot.

The Statistics Behind Emiliano "Dibu" Martínez
The numbers reveal why Argentina's goalkeeper, Emiliano Martínez, is considered one of the world's top penalty specialists. From 65 analyzed attempts against him, he has conceded a goal in 63% of cases, saved 29%, and 8% of shots have missed the target. These figures elevate the probability of an opponent failing to score to 37%. In penalty shootouts, his performance is even more impressive: he has conceded only 52% of 23 shots, saved 43%, and only 4% have gone wide. Furthermore, his ability to read the penalty taker's profile is a significant strength. Against right-footed players, he typically dives to his left – the direction 51% of shots from this group are aimed. However, against left-footed players, he observes a clear tendency towards his right side, where 75% of shots are directed. This ability to recognize patterns and anticipate decisions largely explains his success from twelve yards.