Canadian PM seen avoiding big hit from Alberta election fiasco

OTTAWA, May 6 (Reuters) - Canada's ruling Conservatives look set to avoid taking much damage from the political destruction of a powerful sister party in Alberta and could in fact take advantage of the meltdown in a federal election this October.

The left-leaning New Democrats on Tuesday ended a 44-year run in office by the Conservatives in Alberta, the western province seen as the heartland of the country's right-wing political movement and home to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

On its surface, the upset looks damaging to the prospects of the federal Conservatives, who hold 26 of Alberta's 28 seats in the national Parliament and who are seeking a rare fourth consecutive election win on Oct 19.

But veteran campaign watchers say the dynamic in Alberta provincial politics is so different from the national scene that comparisons are misleading.

"I don't really think Harper is affected by this ... people vote federally and provincially very differently," said Ipsos Reid pollster John Wright.

One big difference is that the right-wing vote in Alberta was split between the Conservatives and Wildrose Party, which like the U.S. Tea Party sits even further from the center. The Conservatives and Wildrose together took 52 percent of the vote on Tuesday compared to 41 percent for the New Democrats.

The federal Conservatives are unchallenged by any party on the right.

Federal Finance Minister Joe Oliver, asked about the implications of the Alberta Conservatives' defeat, told reporters on Wednesday that "it's a different party and the situation is unique."

Alberta's Progressive Conservatives and rookie Premier Jim Prentice ran a poor campaign marked by missteps. Harper, by contrast, is an experienced operator on the election trail.

The Alberta result could actually help the Conservatives. Momentum for the New Democrats nationally could more evenly split the center-left federal vote between them and the Liberals of Justin Trudeau, until now seen as the opposition party with the best chance of beating Harper.

"If anything this gives Trudeau some pause because you have the New Democrats on the march," said Wright of Ipsos-Reid.

Recent polls show the Liberals and the Conservatives in a near-tie nationally, with the New Democrats making up ground. A split in the anti-Harper vote helped the Conservatives win the 2011 election.

Jubilant federal New Democrat legislators said the result showed that progressive voters should ignore the Liberals.

The Liberals took a different view.

"It shows that people are open for change, and if I were Mr. Harper I'd be concerned about what took place in his own backyard," said legislator Francis Scarpaleggia.

Harper was due to return to Canada from a foreign trip later on Wednesday. His office did not respond to questions about how the prime minister assessed the election. (Additional reporting by Randall Palmer and Leah Schnurr in Ottawa; Editing by Jeffrey Hodgson and Andrew Hay)