Bread is about to get more expensive: Here’s why your morning meal will cost more now

• Global wheat prices have hit a 2-year high due to drought in the US and reduced wheat farming, as farmers switch to more profitable crops.

• Nigeria, which imports most of its wheat (over 95%), is directly affected, meaning higher costs for flour and bread.

• Rising shipping, fuel, and fertiliser costs, linked to global tensions, are making wheat even more expensive to import.

• Bakeries may respond by increasing bread prices or reducing loaf sizes (“shrinkflation”), so consumers will likely pay more.

If you’ve noticed your morning bread getting smaller or slightly pricier, it’s not your imagination. Another increase may already be on the way, and this time, it’s coming from far beyond Nigeria’s borders.

A mix of harsh weather, global tensions, and shifting farming priorities is driving up the cost of wheat worldwide. And because Nigeria depends heavily on imported wheat, the effects are landing quickly on local bakeries and consumers.

At the centre of this is Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat, the major variety used for bread flour. As of April 2026, its price has climbed to its highest level in nearly two years. For Nigerians, that’s a direct hit on one of the most common breakfast staples.

What’s happening now is being described as a “perfect storm.” In the United States, wheat planting has dropped to its lowest level since 1919 for the 2026–2027 growing season. Farmers are moving away from wheat and switching to more profitable crops like soybeans and corn.

At the same time, drought conditions are worsening in the US Great Plains, the key region where HRW wheat is grown. As the crop comes out of dormancy this spring, the lack of moisture is already affecting yields.

According to recent data, about 70% of winter wheat production areas are experiencing drought. The situation is getting worse, not better.

READ ALSO: 10 Quick Breakfast Ideas for Busy Nigerians That Aren’t Bread and Tea

The US Department of Agriculture also flagged a sharp drop in crop quality. For the week ending April 19, only 30% of the crop was rated “good or excellent,” compared to 45% a year ago.

Nigeria is one of the world’s largest wheat importers, with demand expected to hit a record 7.2 million tons this year. Yet, less than 5% of that demand is met locally. This means global price changes are felt almost immediately.

The US remains a major supplier, with HRW wheat making up a large portion of exports to Nigeria, valued at about $465 million in 2025. The European Union also supplies wheat, often cheaper varieties from countries like Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.

But even those alternatives aren’t immune. Dry weather conditions are also affecting other wheat-producing regions like Australia and parts of the Black Sea. So switching suppliers may not bring much relief.

Beyond weather, geopolitical tensions are also pushing costs higher. Ongoing issues around the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted fertiliser shipments and increased shipping insurance costs. That, in turn, raises the overall “replacement price” of wheat for countries like Nigeria.

In simple terms, it’s becoming more expensive to grow, ship, and import wheat.

For local bakers, this puts them in a tight spot. Many may turn to “shrinkflation”, reducing loaf sizes while keeping prices the same. Others may have no choice but to increase prices outright.

Either way, consumers will feel it, and with bread being a daily staple in many Nigerian homes, even a small increase can add up quickly.

The rise in wheat prices is also part of a bigger global trend.

“The threat of global food inflation, caused by unfavourable weather in some parts of the world and skyrocketing fuel and fertiliser prices due to the conflict in Iran, coincides with the price increase.”

That means bread might just be the beginning. Other wheat-based foods, and even unrelated food items, could follow the same upward trend.

For now, Nigerians may need to brace for a more expensive breakfast table.