Why staking on Manchester City v Atletico Madrid is a bad idea

Manchester City will host Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League tonight and while such a high-profile game is understandably enticing to punters, there are certain red flags that potentially make it a bad idea.

The first leg of the quarterfinal at the Etihad is the ultimate clash of styles, Pep Guardiola’s free-flowing ‘tiki taka’ against Diego Simeone’s pragmatic style of play.

Manchester City are the better of the sides and have been valued as such at 1.35 odds but that is misleading because football is not that straightforward.

An average punter would lean heavily toward Manchester City when staking here and that may just be a mistake because Atletico Madrid have a high propensity for an upset.

But even if Manchester City win and it all goes according to plan, the satisfaction from a punter’s point of view is not there because they have already been falsely undervalued.

Atletico Madrid are valued at 9.80 odds for a win which is not only disrespectful but most likely a trap by the bookies and a big reason to avoid betting on this game entirely.

Atletico Madrid are on a six-match winning streak and have won seven of their last eight games with only one draw in that run. This is clearly not a team that can be run over quite as easy as everyone seems to think, this is not a walk in the park even if City does secure the win.

And if you think to avoid the straight win and focus on other options like goals, it is equally just as tricky. Atletico have been known for low-scoring games and they may well live up to that reputation tonight by shutting up shop and limiting Manchester City’s goalscoring.

Half of Manchester City’s last 10 games have produced less than three goals which does not inspire confidence for the over 2.5 option valued at 1.78 odds.

The above factors make this game a tricky one to put your money on, it is perhaps best to just stay away.