Economic hardship or preference for Nigerian universities: Should Tinubu’s government take credit for reduction in Japa numbers?

• Education Minister Tunji Alausa says fewer Nigerians are leaving to study abroad.

• The Federal Government says local universities are becoming more attractive.

• Rising exchange rates and living costs have made foreign education more expensive.

• Questions remain over whether the decline is policy success or economic hardship.

For years, “Japa” became a defining trend among young Nigerians seeking better education and opportunities overseas. Countries like the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States saw a sharp rise in Nigerian student migration, especially between 2021 and 2024.

Now, with the Federal Government insisting that the numbers are beginning to drop, an important question has emerged: Is this a sign that Nigerians are regaining confidence in local universities under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, or are economic realities simply making foreign education unaffordable?

On one side, the government appears convinced that reforms in the education sector are beginning to produce results.

Alausa recently argued that many courses Nigerians travel abroad to study are already available in Nigerian universities and, in some cases, even taught better locally. The Federal Government has also suspended the Bilateral Education Agreement scholarship programme for five years, insisting that funds spent sponsoring students abroad should instead be redirected toward improving local institutions.

There is also evidence that studying abroad has become more difficult globally. Countries such as the UK and Canada have tightened immigration rules affecting international students. Tuition fees, accommodation costs and proof-of-funds requirements have also increased significantly in recent years.

Combined with the introduction of Nigeria’s student loan scheme and discussions around improving university infrastructure, the government may argue that more students are beginning to consider local options.

But there is another side to the conversation. Since the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira under Tinubu’s administration, the cost of living has risen sharply across Nigeria. The naira’s decline against foreign currencies has dramatically increased the cost of foreign education for average Nigerian families.

A tuition fee that once cost ₦10 million equivalent a few years ago may now require more than double that amount due to exchange rate changes alone. Visa fees, flight tickets, accommodation and feeding costs abroad have also surged.

For many middle-class families who previously managed to send children overseas, studying abroad is no longer financially realistic.

This raises the possibility that the decline in “Japa” numbers may have less to do with confidence in Nigerian universities and more to do with the economic pressure facing households.

At the same time, many of the long-standing problems in Nigerian universities still remain unresolved. Public universities continue to face concerns around underfunding, overcrowded lecture halls, unstable academic calendars and infrastructure deficits.

While some private universities have improved facilities and attracted students who might otherwise study abroad, access remains limited because of high tuition costs.

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The debate ultimately reflects two realities existing at the same time. It is possible that stricter foreign immigration policies and some government reforms are slowing education migration. It is also equally possible that economic hardship has simply made “Japa” too expensive for many Nigerians.

Whether the reduction should be seen as a policy success or an economic consequence may depend on one key factor: if the economy improves tomorrow, will Nigerians still choose to remain in local universities?