AFCON 2021: Why Nigeria vs Egypt is more significant than it appears

The 2021 AFCON action is already underway, but Nigeria and Egypt have to wait till Tuesday, January 11 2022, to kick off their campaigns.

Both teams will face each other in the opening game of Group D at the Roumde Adjia Stadium in Garoua in a match that will have bigger consequences than usual for an opening game. Here is why.

Both Nigeria and Egypt are the favourites to qualify automatically out of this group, but it remains too close to call who finishes first or second.

They are both expected to take maximum points from the other two games against Guinea-Bissau and Sudan which will guarantee them both six points each.

This means that the opening game will most likely end up being the tie-breaker, presenting a ‘winner takes all’ situation right from the start.

It is difficult to attach high stakes to the first of potentially seven games (depending on how far each team progresses), but losing or winning this game could be the difference between a good or bad tournament for both Nigeria and Egypt.

Other than the fact that nobody wants to start a tournament with a loss, we have also established that this result could determine who ends up first or second.

So why does that matter? On a surface level, the first-placed team will face a potentially weaker opponent in the Round of 16 than the second-placed team.

To go deeper, CAF has set up the winner of Group D to face a third-placed team from any one of groups B, E and F. Based on projections, (excluding Senegal, Algeria, Ivory Coast, Mali and Tunisia because they are unlikely to finish third) that could be any one of Guinea, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mauritania, Gambia, Sierra Leone and Equatorial Guinea.

On the other hand, the runner-up in Group D can only face the winner of Group E which everyone expects to be Algeria. Group E contains Algeria, Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone and Equatorial Guinea so, in the unlikely event that Algeria slips up and misses out on the top spot, Ivory Coast will most likely fill in the gap.

Based on the above information, it is in the best interests of Nigeria and Egypt to strive to win Group D as it provides not only an easier Round of 16 fixture but also potentially a clearer path to making a deep run at AFCON 2021.

Finishing as a runner-up will most likely mean a tie against Algeria who are currently on a 31-game unbeaten run (could be 34 by the end of the group stages), an almost guaranteed Round of 16 exit for either Nigeria or Egypt.

So it is advisable for both Nigeria and Egypt to play the opening game like it is a final, it is not obvious now but the fate of their entire AFCON 2021 journey could rest on it.