World Cup: Change to Win is History's Warning to Martínez

"The World Cup is a tournament where these things happen. There are moments when performances aren't up to par. Remember, in the Qatar World Cup, Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia and then won the World Cup; in 2010, Spain lost to Switzerland and won the World Cup. These weren't performances from teams that looked like winners, but they were. It's a process," Roberto Martínez stated after the 1-1 draw with DR Congo.

And it's true. But it's a truth limited to those two defeats. In 22 World Cup final stages, only twice has the eventual champion lost their opening match. This means over 90 percent of those champions either won or, at the very least, drew their opening games.

We mention draws because two other World Cup champions, while not losing their opener, did draw. We're talking about England in 1966 and Italy in 1982. The English won their next game, but the Italians drew their subsequent two. They drew all three group stage matches—much like Portugal in Euro 2016, for example.

Three of the four national team coaches who didn't win their opening match (England's Alf Ramsey, Spain's Vicente Del Bosque, and Argentina's Lionel Scaloni) made changes to their starting XI for the second game. And they won. The fourth (Italy's Enzo Bearzot) made no changes. And he drew again.

What is being asked of Martínez, then, is to reflect on this fact. And we believe the national coach will do so. Perhaps it's time, for example, to give minutes to Trincão, Félix, and one of the Gonçalos. "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results," as Einstein is said to have stated.

Let's look at the teams that didn't win their opening match but became champions:

England-1966

Sixty years ago, in the famous 'Magriços' World Cup, England drew their opening match 0-0 with Uruguay on July 11, 1966. Alf Ramsey started with Banks; Cohen, Jacky Charlton, Moore, and Wilson; Stiles, Bobby Charlton, and Ball; Greaves, Hunt, and Connelly. Five days later, against Mexico, Ramsey made two changes: Ball for Peters and Connelly for Paine. They won 2-0. And they would go on to become world champions.

Italy-1982

Forty-four years ago, at the World Cup in Spain, Italy drew their first game 0-0 with Poland on June 14, 1982. In fact, they drew all three group stage matches, but what's relevant here is what Enzo Bearzot did for the next game against Peru. Against the Poles, he started with Zoff; Gentile, Scirea, Collovati, and Cabrini; Marini, Antognoni, and Tardelli; Conti, Rossi, and Graziani. Four days later, Bearzot fielded the same team. And they drew with the South Americans: 1-1. But they would go on to become world champions.

Spain-2010

"Our brothers" lost their opening match at the South Africa World Cup on June 16, 2010: 0-1 to Switzerland. Vicente del Bosque felt the pressure and, for the next game against Honduras, he made two changes. He started the match against the Swiss with Casillas; Sergio Ramos, Puyol, Piqué, and Capdevila; Xabi Alonso, Busquets, Xavi, and Iniesta; David Silva, and David Villa. Five days later, against Honduras, Del Bosque swapped Iniesta for Torres and David Silva for Jesús Navas. They won 2-0. And they were world champions.

Argentina-2022

The South Americans lost their opening match at the Qatar World Cup on November 22, 2022: 1-2 to Saudi Arabia. Lionel Scaloni started with Emiliano Martínez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, and Tagliafico; Di María, De Paul, Paredes, and Papu Gómez; Messi, and Lautaro Martínez. Four days later, against Mexico, the Argentine coach made four changes: Romero for Lisandro Martínez, Tagliafico for Acuña, Paredes for Guido Rodríguez, and Papu Gómez for Mac Allister. They beat Mexico 2-0. And they were world champions.

Portugal 2004 and 2016

It's much more common for future European champions not to win their opening match. This happened in 1968 (Italy), 1988 (Netherlands), 1992 (Denmark), 2012 (Spain), and 2016 (Portugal). Five times in 17 editions.

Finally, the case where Portugal made the most changes from their opening game to the next. This occurred in 2004. They didn't win the European Championship but reached the final. Luiz Felipe Scolari started with Ricardo; Paulo Ferreira, Jorge Andrade, Fernando Couto, and Rui Jorge; Maniche, Costinha, and Rui Costa; Figo, Pauleta, and Simão. They lost to Greece 1-2 on June 12, 2004, and four days later, Scolari made four changes: Paulo Ferreira for Miguel, Fernando Couto for Ricardo Carvalho, Rui Jorge for Nuno Valente, and Rui Costa for Deco. Scolari changed three of the four defenders and, three weeks later, they were in the final. They lost it, of course, but the inaugural defeat did not prevent Portugal from reaching the decisive match.