The Unsustainable Lightness of the 'Underdog'

Few knockout matches have started without a clear favorite. The tournament organizers naturally aim for major clashes in the later stages, and the Round of 16 has been no exception. The 'outsider' narrative has been prominent with teams like Canada, Paraguay, and even Norway.

It's been fascinating to observe how the perceived superiority of an opponent shapes team tactics. Do teams assume defeat if they play an open, attacking game? Do they believe the only path to victory is to stick to their core philosophy and principles? Do they prefer to go down fighting for their ideals or succumb to the trap of strategic subversion? Paraguay, for instance, fell after erecting a defensive wall in front of their goal. They understood that limiting the space for France's stars was key and managed to push the decision-making to the very end.

However, could the game have been approached differently? If Paraguay had aimed for possession, built attacks from the back, or involved more players offensively, could they have delayed the outcome? Canada, on the other hand, pushed Morocco back for the entire first half. In what was arguably Ouahbi's team's worst performance, Canada only failed to score in the first half by a miracle. In the second, they were undone by a defensive error from a set-piece – one of the meticulously planned set-pieces of this World Cup – which changed the game. The final score doesn't tell the full story.

Finally, Norway aimed to make history and went toe-to-toe with Brazil in the first half. While their individual talent gap might be smaller than other teams, it would have been easy for Solbakken's side to cede possession to the Seleção and hope their pace up front made the difference. Of course, Bruno Guimarães could have put Brazil ahead (did Vinícius shy away from the responsibility?), but a goal wouldn't have reflected a game with chances for both sides. Norway embraced the challenge head-on and, carried by Haaland, were rewarded. There's no single formula, but competitive maturity is a differentiator. The ability to rise above adversity, stabilize the game, and hurt the opponent is a champion's trait. Brazil failed to demonstrate it.

As I write this, the Portugal-Spain match has yet to be played. While the individual talent gap is minimal (does it even exist?), Spain is favored by most bookmakers. It's easy to see why. How will Martínez approach his first game where victory isn't an obligation?