The Ugly Truth: Nigeria’s “Ceasefire” With Boko Haram

Boko Haram has been waging war on Nigeria since 2009. An escalation of violence and attacks mostly in the Northern part of the country led President Goodluck Jonathan, in May 2013, to declare a state of emergency in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states. The state of emergency was originally supposed to last 6 months but was extended in November 2013 and again in May 2014.

Troops were deployed to the hot zones and the war against Boko Haram began in earnest but it soon proved to be an unending one as reports filtered in of more and more battles in which the sect seemed to continuously have an upper hand over the Nigerian Army.

Ceasefire

With the rising casualty figure in the North-East and the continued captivity of the abducted Chibok girls, it seemed a welcome idea for the Federal Government to announce, on October 17, 2014, a ceasefire between the country's troops and Boko Haram. Citizens heaved a collective sigh of relief as it seemed that the violence would finally end; they sighed too soon.

The Violence Continues

The purported ceasefire apparently didn’t last very long, in fact between October 17 and 18, Boko Haram reportedly invaded the villages of Abadam and Dzur in Borno State leaving at least nine people dead.

Members of the sect were also reported to have beheaded six people along the Biu-Garkida Road in Borno State on Friday, October 17, the same day the ceasefire was announced.

Nigerian troops launched a counter-attack on the terrorists in Damboa, also in Borno and managed to kill 25 terrorists although the soldiers were subsequently ambushed by the insurgents in a retaliatory attack; on and on it goes.

Chibok Girls’ Release

The ceasefire agreement was also expected to culminate in the release of the abducted Chibok girls. Tentative dates were given for their release with October 20 initially cited until the self-acclaimed Secretary General of Boko Haram, Danladi Ahmaduannounced that the girls would be released on October 27 after final negotiations in Chad.

However, members of the sect have continued to abduct citizens even after the ceasefire was announced.

On October 18, 60 women and girls were reported to have been abducted from Waga Mangoro and Garta villages in Adamawa State by Boko Haram militants and between October 25 and 26, 30 adolescent girls and boys were reportedly taken by members of the sect from Maffa village in Borno State.

Election Blues

Jonathan’s administration has been accused of speedily announcing a ceasefire in order to score cheap political points to ensure a win in the 2015 elections.

The Vice President of Africa Analysis at the Stratfor consultancy, Mark Schroeder said:

"I sense Nigeria rushed to announce the deal with electoral-political calculations in mind."

"Getting a victory with the schoolgirls and a short-term truce with Boko Haram could be positive for President Goodluck Jonathan's campaign."

And a resident of Maiduguri, Joel Peter told Reuters:

"The government just wants to (win) 2015 elections at all costs."

"Only the government is ready for ceasefire, not Boko Haram. Government is tired of insurgency and it hasn't been winning the war ... but Boko Haram aren't tired," he said. "For the Chibok girls, let's wait and see,"

The President of the Civil Rights Congress of Nigeria, Comrade Shehu Sanidescribed the ceasefire agreement as a scam saying:

“It is either government sat with fake persons or the government is part of the forgery."

The Ugly Truth

Assurances have been given by the Federal Government that negotiations are indeed ongoing with Boko Haram but that in itself is a tragedy.

First of all, it has been widely speculated that the sect has been split into many factions and even the group’s “Secretary General”, Danladi Ahmadu stated that Boko Haram has been infiltrated by robbers and miscreants who are not bound by the sect’s “ethics”.

If this be the case, Boko Haram has now become a snake with many heads, like a Lernaean Hydra and for each one that is cut off; two more horrific ones grow in its place.

The question now is; how does the government know which faction of the sect it is dealing with and how can it be sure that it is the deadliest or the most powerful?

Boko Haram leader, Abubakar Shekau has been declared dead more than once but he manages to reappear; how will the government stop the sect from rearing its ugly head again after the agreement is finalized?

Sour Success

Even if the negotiations between the Nigerian government and Boko Haram turn out to be successful and the violence ends, could that really be viewed as a victory?

An entire nation with armed forces at its beck and call agreeing to a truce with a few thousand terrorists is nothing short of a tragedy.

As Germany’s Spiegel Online puts it, Boko Haram has forced Nigeria to its knees and the blackmail is sure to continue.