Nigeria may face rice, tomato, other staple food shortage in coming months as surging transport costs and insecurity threaten food supply

• Nigeria faces a severe supply deficit in rice, tomatoes, peppers, and other basic food items over the next three months, threatening to trigger fresh price hikes.

• National rice production is expected to fall by six per cent to 8.3 million tonnes due to a seven per cent decline in total cultivated land.

• Skyrocketing energy and fuel prices have pushed the cost of transporting a tonne of grain from Kano to Lagos from ₦45,000 up to ₦70,000.

• A major shortage of cold-chain logistics and ongoing insecurity in key farming belts continue to cause up to 50 per cent in post-harvest food waste.

Nigeria is at risk of severe supply shortages across key staple foods, including rice, tomatoes, peppers, and onions, within the next three months. The Organisation for Technology Advancement of Cold Chain in West Africa (OTACCWA) issued the warning, citing a combination of declining farm production, post-harvest losses, surging transportation costs, and ongoing rural insecurity.

Speaking in Lagos, the President of OTACCWA and Nigeria Country Director for the World Agriculture Forum, Alexander Isong, cautioned that supply pressures could worsen food inflation for millions of households already struggling with high living costs.

National rice output is projected to fall by six per cent to 8.3 million tonnes, while cultivated land dedicated to rice has dropped by seven per cent to 4.2 million hectares. The trend mirrors recent estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which indicated a five per cent year-on-year drop. In addition, tomato scarcity is expected to persist until the late harvest cycle begins in October. Other major grains, such as maize, sorghum, and millet, face supply tightness due to lower planting figures. Meanwhile, wheat dependency remains steep, with Nigeria expected to import roughly 7.2 million tonnes to meet domestic consumption demand.

The warning highlights that agricultural gains recorded earlier in the year are being erased before reaching consumer markets. A primary contributor is the sharp rise in logistics overhead driven by fuel costs. Freight charges to move one tonne of grain from Kano to Lagos escalated from ₦45,000 to ₦70,000, while transport fares on several interstate transit routes have doubled or tripled.

Compounding the problem is Nigeria's deficit in cold-chain infrastructure. The country continues to lose between 30 per cent and 50 per cent of its harvested perishable produce before it gets to market. Less than five per cent of food in Nigeria is currently transported under temperature-controlled conditions, resulting in massive spoilage during long-distance haulage. Furthermore, insecurity across major food-producing zones in Northern Nigeria has displaced thousands of farmers, preventing safe access to agricultural fields.

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To avert widespread shortages, OTACCWA urged coordinated action from federal and state governments, private investors, and development partners. Recommended measures include expanding cold storage facilities, setting up pre-cooling aggregation centers near farm hubs, improving rural road networks, and leveraging rail freight for bulk produce transit. Isong also stressed the urgent need to guarantee security in farming belts and distribute improved seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation support to farmers ahead of the upcoming planting cycle. "If we reduce post-harvest losses, improve logistics, secure farming communities, and support farmers, we can reduce shortages and stabilize food prices," Isong concluded.