Jokic and Co. could walk into a "slaughterhouse" in their first playoff series, and here's why

One of the Western Conference's burgeoning rivalries is set for another chapter as Denver and Minnesota clash in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons. The Nuggets, entering the series on a 12-game winning streak, will hold home-court advantage against a team that limped to the finish line with a 9-10 record. Denver defeated Minnesota in five games in the 2023 first-round playoffs, but the Timberwolves exacted revenge in the 2024 semifinals, winning in seven games.

This season, Denver (54-28) won three of four encounters against Minnesota (49-33), including a Christmas classic decided in overtime, where the phenomenal Nikola Jokic recorded a triple-double with 56 points, 16 rebounds, and 15 assists, while Anthony Edwards scored 44 points.

The history between these teams extends beyond the court. The Nuggets' foundation was laid by Tim Connelly, now the Timberwolves' President of Basketball Operations. Conversely, the Nuggets welcomed John Wallas back to their front office this season after he spent the past three seasons with Connelly in Minnesota. Additionally, Nuggets head coach David Adelman previously served as an assistant coach in Minnesota under his father, Rick.

Can the Timberwolves "flip the switch"? After two consecutive Western Conference Finals appearances and retaining almost their entire roster (except for Nickeil Alexander-Walker), the Timberwolves spoke in training camp about taking that final step towards the NBA Finals. It seemed we would see an ultra-motivated, focused group in the regular season, determined to atone for last year's 4-1 debacle against the Thunder. Instead, we saw a team that was largely complacent throughout the season, as if they considered these 82 games beneath them.

The question the Wolves will answer in this series is: do they have that switch they can flip? Or are they a team in decline? They will need Edwards at his best on both ends, after too many nights in the regular season where he coasted on defense. He has always been a player who elevates his game in the playoffs and should enter the postseason healthier than he has been in weeks, having had time to rest a sore right knee.

Julius Randle overcame many of his playoff demons last season and will be healthy and rested, as will Jaden McDaniels, who missed six games with a left knee bone bruise. The Wolves believe they have the talent to beat anyone. At times this season, they probably believed in themselves too much. Now it's time to see what they're made of.

The Nuggets boast the best offense in the NBA, but their defense ranks in the bottom third. However, during their 12-game winning streak to close the season, Adelman felt that defense defined that run:

A key factor in the Nuggets' defensive efforts will be the availability of perhaps their best perimeter defender, forward Peyton Watson, who has battled hamstring injuries this season. He hasn't played since April 1st, when he re-aggravated a right hamstring injury. The same injury forced him to miss 19 games earlier in the season. Watson has started on-court workouts, but the Nuggets have not specified when they expect his return.

According to those familiar with the situation in Minneapolis, the player who could tip the scales in favor of the "Wolves" is Ayo Dosunmu.

The mid-season acquisition proved to be everything the Wolves hoped for and more. Before acquiring him from Chicago, they were severely lacking in ball-handling creators. Dosunmu brought them a very capable playmaker and one of the team's best downhill scorers.

His ability in transition was a real shot in the arm for the offense. His perimeter defense, while not at Alexander-Walker's level, represents a huge improvement. He's playing for a new contract this summer and is finally on a good team after five years in Chicago, and that hunger has been crucial for a squad that often appeared lethargic. Dosunmu is averaging 14.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, and shooting 41% from three since joining Minnesota. They will need all that energy to provide Edwards with the necessary scoring support against Denver's formidable offense.

There's no doubt, it's Tim Hardaway Jr.

There's something about Minneapolis that brings out the best in Hardaway. In the first two matchups this season, both in Minneapolis, he sparked comebacks with third-quarter explosions. In the third game of the season, Hardaway shot 5-5 from three-point range in the third quarter, turning a 65-57 halftime deficit into a 127-114 victory. Then, in the second encounter, he scored 23 points (13 in the third quarter) for a comeback and a 123-112 Denver win.

If Minneapolis fans think they've seen this before – they're right. Even in college at Michigan, he had two unforgettable performances at the "Williams Arena." Throughout his 13-year career, Hardaway averages 16.6 points against Minnesota, his highest average against any team. This year, he's averaging 19.8 points on 61% shooting from the field and 55.6% from three.

Without a doubt - defensive rebounding. The Timberwolves rank 19th in the league in defensive rebound percentage. Their inability to close out possessions on defense means they routinely give opponents multiple scoring opportunities. They absolutely cannot afford to do that against the Nuggets, who will feast on kick-out threes if Jokic and Aaron Gordon control the offensive glass. Denver is only 24th in offensive rebounding, but that's little comfort for the Wolves. At their worst, they turn the ball over and get crushed on the boards. To beat the Nuggets, they must limit their opponent to just one shot per possession.

Primarily, rim protection. Adelman stated that "on-ball" defense will be key, as the team's biggest weakness is its ability to defend the rim itself. Nuggets centers Jokic and Jonas Valanciunas are not vertically dominant, and the team's best rebounders (Watson, Spencer Jones, and Gordon) are either injured or have had their minutes restricted for the season. This puts the perimeter defense under scrutiny: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, and Cam Johnson, and the question is whether they can stop Edwards' aggressive drives.

They are the healthiest they've been in the last month. Edwards is ready, McDaniels is at 100%, Naz Reid's shoulder injury is improving, and Gobert and Randle have had much-needed rest. They also have a full week off to prepare for the playoffs instead of battling in the play-in, which they used the previous two years to sweep Phoenix (4-0) and dispatch the Lakers (4-1).

The Nuggets prioritized freshness for the playoffs all season, which they achieved by resting starters in their final two games. Additionally, their late-season schedule worked in their favor – they had minimal travel, allowing them to recuperate at home.

The Timberwolves are underdogs, and for good reason. But they are healthy, rested, and have Edwards, whom Denver has never been able to fully contain. They believe they can win because they've done it before. This will be a true "bloodbath" between two teams that know each other too well. On the other hand, the Wolves haven't shown they can stop the best player in the world. His performance in four games this season is terrifying: 25-19-10, then 27-12-11, then that incredible 56-16-15, and finally 35-13-9. With Jokic playing like that and Murray regularly dropping 35-40 points against them, Denver is simply too strong and could close out this series in six games.

VIDEO She's from Denver, loves Jokic, and follows him everywhere: Tatiana reveals all about Nikola's life in Colorado for Sportal!