Ikeja Electric blames poor power supply on grid shortfall, but the problem is bigger

• Lagosians have been dealing with power supply shortages for about three weeks.

• Ikeja Electric says the problem is due to low power supply from the national grid.

• Many power-generating companies are underperforming due to other layers of issues.

Many parts of Lagos have had to adapt to low power supply that has been plaguing the state since the second week of October. On October 19, Ikeja Electric blamed the reduced supply of electricity on a “shortfall in the amount of power currently allocated to our network from the national grid.”

While the distribution company’s explanation is true, it only scratches the surface of what is a more complex systemic problem, from power generation to distribution.

Under the Goodluck Jonathan administration, the power sector was privatised; power generation and power distribution were transferred to private entities while the government retained the duty of transmission under the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) and the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO). 

Prior to July, TCN used to manage both transmission and grid management, but now the role has been split between it and NISO.

TCN now operates primarily as the Transmission Service Provider (TSP) managing physical infrastructure like lines and substations, while NISO handles system operations, market administration, and grid dispatch.

Essentially, electricity is generated by the generating companies (GenCos) connected to the grid managed by the TCN, where it is then supplied to distribution companies (DisCos), who then distribute it to final consumers.

From the national grid, power is transmitted to substations where it is delivered at usable voltage to DisCos. This explains why there are national blackouts whenever the grid experiences a total collapse, and why some parts of a distribution coverage area experience outages whenever substations fail.

Deductively then, for Nigeria to enjoy a fairly steady supply, generation, transmission and distribution must be at maximal capacity, but that has never been the case.

Low grid supply, as Ikeja Electric stated, is a problem that points to other factors: the grid itself is receiving low supply from generating companies; or that the grid is not at its optimal state to supply the power supplied to it from GenCos to DisCos.

Nigeria’s transmission infrastructure, from the national grid itself to substations, has always experienced breakdowns. Prior to 2023, the national grid suffered many breakdowns, and Nigerian homes had to deal with widespread blackouts. However, the problem has only persisted with the incumbent administration.

Former Minister of Power Bayo Adelabu, after the country experienced incessant grid downtime in 2024, admitted that the fundamental problem of transmission was that the transmission infrastructure was too old to function optimally. 

“Let me tell you, the truth of the matter is we have old infrastructure. We have a national grid that is more than 50 years old. We have a national grid whose transmission lines are weak,” Adelabu told NTA.

“The towers are falling, and the substations and transformers are old. In fact, the substation that actually collapsed in Jebba was 47 years old. We’ve been trying to revamp this to change them, but they cannot all be changed overnight.”

It isn’t the case that the government has done nothing to improve transmission infrastructure; there have been new substations and repaired transmission lines, yet the problems persist.

In fact, on the same day IE put out its statement, NISO stated that at approximately 12:40 hours, the national grid experienced multiple trippings on the 330kV transmission network, even though the problem was fixed.

Between September and October, there have been at least five cases of transmission line trippings: the Kainji–Birnin Kebbi 330kV, Kubwa 33kV feeder, Kumbotso–Dan Agundi 132kV, Karu–Keffi–Akwanga 132kV line, Egbin–Ajah and Ajah–Lekki 330kV lines.

Adelabu himself recognised that these problems would not be solved with replacements here and fixes there. In his own words, a total revamp of the whole system was the fundamental solution.

“This grid requires a lot of money to maintain. So, what we have now, we will continue to manage it and prevent frequent disturbances until we are able to overhaul this infrastructure 100 per cent,” he said.

On the same day Ikeja Electric put out its statement, NISO’s data showed that Nigeria’s electricity generation dipped massively from 3,840 megawatts (MW) the day prior to 476.70MW, which left the national grid with less than 500MW to distribute across the country. 

On the one hand, the sharp drop in power noticeable around Lagos can be explained in terms of multiple power-generating plants massively underperforming. For instance, the Egbin, Jebba, Shiroro and Kainji recorded zero generation.

When the grid was monitored between 3:30 hours and 4:18 hours on Monday, this writer found the real-time generation on the grid fluctuating between 941MW and 2,415MW.

Amongst numerous factors, insufficient gas production or availability for domestic power generation is the major cause of GenCos’ underperformance. 

Many of Nigeria’s grid-connected thermal plants rely on natural gas. When gas supplies fall short, plants cannot operate at their full capacity, even when their generating equipment is working. Thermal power stations produce about 70% of the electricity supplied through the national grid while hydroelectric plants produce the rest.

For context, Nigeria has a grid-installed capacity of about 13,000MW. This helps us understand that 2,415MW, the peak observed on Monday, was gross underperformance. Over the past two years, Nigeria has roughly been able to generate about 4,500MW, yet GenCos have been warning since February that the generation could even dip further in the year.

When there’s less power generation, there’s less available for rationing across the country.

In February,  gas deliveries to power plants fell to 43% of the required volume, and the shortage was tied to mounting debt from government subsidies, which GenCos said had risen to N6 trillion. A large percentage of that money is owed to entities supplying gas to gas-fired power plants.

Chief Executive Officer of the Association of Power Generation Companies, Joy Ogaji, said gas producers were insisting on payment before supplying fuel to power plants. 

“Gas is not available because the gas suppliers have told us that if we need gas, we need to put money on the ground to get gas in the pipe. We owed them a lot of money,” she said in February.

“The gas suppliers have really been very kind to us. They are the reason why the thermal plants are still generating power. But now, they have told us that if there’s no payment, there will be no gas for the thermal power plants.”

Hydroelectric plants face a different set of constraints that aren't gas-related. Their output depends partly on water availability and reservoir levels, which change with rainfall and the seasons. Therefore, there are strong possibilities that the current heat wave may be playing a part.

Although not the immediate problem, coming months may be a problem for Nigeria and the rest of West Africa due to El Niño-induced drought conditions, according to a Sub-Saharan Africa Power & Renewables Report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company. 

“The West African Power Pool (WAPP) will also see risks, but the impact on the pool will be lesser, as there is a lesser reliance on hydropower in the region. Of the WAPP, Nigeria will be the market at greatest risk, as it is the most reliant on imports in the region,” the report stated.

Since resuming office, the Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, has announced efforts to rapidly improve the nation's power infrastructure, including increased government investment and a consumer feedback channel. While the country's power situation has yet to improve, there appear to be tougher days ahead for Nigerians, as the government has announced intentions to remove the electricity subsidy in 2027.

With Nigerians heading to the polls in January 2027 for the general elections, the country's failing power infrastructure will be a heated debate, especially as the incumbent president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, during his 2023 campaign told Nigerians not to elect him for a second term if he fails to provide them with stable electricity.

By Akinjide Adebowale