What Are the Chances of Nigerian Artists at the 2026 Grammy Awards?

Nigeria’s musical heavyweights are gearing up for the 68th Annual Grammy Awards, happening this Sunday, February 1, 2026, at the Crypto.com Arena. With five superstars: Burna Boy, Davido, Wizkid, Ayra Starr, and Omah Lay, securing nominations, the stakes and expectations are high.

In this article, we examine Nigeria's chances at the 2026 Grammys category-by-category, based on historical pedigree, commercial impact in the US, and the cold reality of Grammy voting patterns.

• "Love" – Burna Boy

• "With You" – Davido ft. Omah Lay

• "Gimme Dat" – Ayra Starr ft. Wizkid

• "Push 2 Start" – Tyla (South Africa)

• "Hope & Love" – Eddy Kenzo & Mehran Matin (Uganda)

Afrobeats' commercial success in the United States was a principal contributing factor to the creation of the African music performance category. Tems made history at the 2025 Grammys by becoming the first Nigerian star to win the prize. At the 2026 Grammys, Nigerian heavyweights Davido, Burna Boy, Omah Lay, and Ayra Starr will be contesting to bring home the prize with competition from South African star Tyla and Ugandan stars Eddy Kenzo & Mehran Matin. 

Burna Boy is the Academy’s ‘golden boy’ with a record of 13 career nominations, giving him a massive advantage in pedigree. The self-acclaimed African Giant is a legacy nominee, but ‘Love’ didn't have the seismic cultural impact of his 2022 global smash ‘Last Last’ and feels like a customary nomination and a status marker.

However, Davido’s ‘With You’ is one of Africa’s biggest hits of 2025, with the momentum sweeping across social media platforms and the charts. The song broke the record for the most first-week streams on Spotify Nigeria. It also scored an impressive and impressive Top 10 peak on U.S. Urban Radio and pulled 175,000 units in the country. Although it didn’t record huge commercial success in the US, its wide local acceptance, Davido’s impressive 2025 that included a sold-out tour of US cities, and his growing pedigree suggest this might just be his year. 

Yet, the elephant in the room is Tyla. The category’s maiden winner, she boasts of a pedigree as well as commercial success in the US. Her hit single ‘Push 2 Start’ has maintained the sleek, Afropolitan production that has helped her straddle the US and African markets. 

The track has surpassed 440 million streams on Spotify. It peaked at No. 88 on the Billboard Hot 100. This makes Tyla the second African female artist in history (after Miriam Makeba) to score multiple solo entries on this chart. 

As of August 2025, the song was officially certified Gold in the U.S. for selling over 500,000 units. It spent eight weeks at No. 1 on the U.S. Afrobeats Songs chart and reached No. 6 on the Rhythmic Airplay chart. Tyla’s a major contender for the award thanks to her stellar music and commercial success, positioning her as one of the figures leading African pop music on the global stage. 

The Verdict: LIKELY. There is a chance of a Nigerian win, but an upset is lurking. The Nigerian entries will split the vote, potentially allowing Tyla to coast to another win. 

However, Davido is a slight favorite to finally secure his first Grammy. After being shut out at the 66th and 67th awards despite his massive cultural footprint, there could be a growing sense within the voting committees that Davido has ‘paid his dues.’ 

In a room of industry peers, ‘With You’ isn't just evaluated on its BPM or melody; it is seen as the definitive moment to reward a decade of global ambassadorial work. If he wins, it is because he provided the Academy with the one thing it finds impossible to ignore: an undeniable hit song. If Tyla doesn’t win, this award is Davido’s to lose.

• Sounds Of Kumbha — Siddhant Bhatia

• No Sign of Weakness — Burna Boy

• Éclairer le monde – Light the World — Youssou N’Dour

• Mind Explosion (50th Anniversary Tour Live) — Shakti

• Chapter III: We Return to Light — Anoushka Shankar featuring Alam Khan & Sarathy Korwar

• Caetano e Bethânia Ao Vivo — Caetano Veloso and Maria Bethânia

The Best Global Music Album category is notoriously traditional. While Burna Boy already has a win here (2021), the Academy often pivots toward legendary icons or high-concept instrumental projects. For many people, Burna Boy’s nomination comes as a surprise, as No Sign of Weakness (NSOW) is the weakest album in his unprecedented run. However, it is also a statement of his Grammy pedigree. He is a star respected and adored by the critics, and if you need some evidence, this is his fifth consecutive album to be nominated in the category.

Burna Boy makes pop music that caters to the desires of his millions of listeners, whom he dazzles in historic concerts globally. In a category that has consistently favoured critical acclaim and traditional musicality, NSOW is facing an uphill task. 

The Verdict: UNLIKELY. The Recording Academy has never had an "Afrobeats fever" as far as the Global category goes. This trend can be expected to continue. Youssou N'Dour,  Anoushka Shankar, and Shakti represent the "classic" Global Music aesthetic that Academy members prioritise. 

• "JERUSALEMA" —  Angélique Kidjo

• "EoO" — Bad Bunny

• "Shrini's Dream (Live)" — Shakti

• "Daybreak" — Anoushka Shankar

• "Cantando en el Camino" —  Ciro Hurtado

Perhaps, the most damning indictment of Nigeria’s 2026 cycle is the total absence from this category. For years, Nigerians were a staple in the Global Performance category. The fact that not a single Nigerian vocal performance was deemed Grammy-worthy is telling. 

This year, there are some regular suspects. Angélique Kidjo, the ‘Queen Mother’ of African folk music, makes a return to a category she has dominated for decades. 14-time nominee Anoushka Shankar will be aiming to finally pick up the prize. 

Bad Bunny’s inclusion appears to put a spanner in the works of other contenders, as the megastar has the global standing and Grammy pedigree to add to his wins.  Benito’s upcoming Super Bowl performance solidifies this point and significantly impacts the narrative surrounding his Grammy nominations.

The Verdict: NON-EXISTENT. Nigeria is a spectator in a category it once aimed to own. Bad Bunny’s EoO and Angélique Kidjo’s JERUSALEMA are the clear favourites here.