Jude Osagbai thinks Nigerian music is going through a paradigm shift

Jude Osagbai is the Former Entertainment Editor at Daily Times Newspapers. He worked as an artist manager for the defunct HKN Music, Lamboginny, Endia, currently with Runtown’s Management. He’s the founder of June 1st Media and also label & partnership manager for MAD Solutions. 

“The Nigerian music industry is going through a very weird blend of advancement, that’s leaving a lot of people in the mud,” Osagbai says. “People are making money, there’s a lot of money in the industry, but a lot of businesses are also going through it.”

Osagbai is right. Currently, the CD business is enduring a slide. In 2020, Motolani Alake, the Managing Editor of Pulse Nigeria did an article about the impact of streaming on CD sales in Nigeria and you can watch it below;

All of this is triggered by streaming, which has saved the music industry and contributed 65% of the global direct revenue for the music industry in 2021. In Q1 2022, Warner Music reported that streaming contributed to $770 million of its $1.4 billion revenue. 

But in Nigeria, even as streaming is slowly starting to reflect our true listening habits, it’s still in its infancy. Thus, a large part of Nigeria still consumes music via airplay and CDs. At best, CD use has been abridged, but it only goes to typify the fragmentation of Nigerian listening habits. 

“I was speaking to a 16-year-old the other day, and he told me that he doesn’t watch TV or listen to radio. He also told me that he’s never bought a CD before,” says Osagbai. “It was a culture shock, because I know the amount of CDs I had bought by 16. But that’s his reality: YouTube, video games, virtual currencies, streaming, metaverse and more.”

In Lagos, a platform like City FM or Bond FM accounts for over 100,000 listeners per day, which is why radio remains the most effective marketing tool for Nigerian music. However, there are also young artists with a predominant streaming audience. 

“This goes to show me three things: the first is how it means that artists should try to understand the reality of the market, and then their market. Second, you can’t assume and then go with it,” he continues. “You have to examine data, to see how your music is getting consumed. Thirdly, you can then market accordingly.” 

But Osagbai also notes that cultivating an audience is the biggest problem for Nigerian artists. He says, “I think most of them are confused because they are obsessed with instant success and fame. They want to be successful overnight. Look at Asake: In 2016, Blaqbonez tweeted about him and he’s been grinding then.”

“The then released ‘Mr Money’ in 2020, and it blew in 2021. There is nothing like an overnight success. Immediate success is even risky,” he adds. “I think artists should first understand themselves and their strengths. They can use that knowledge to create the music that aligns with it. Then, they can start testing looks, branding and start experimenting with sounds. Eventually something will click.”

This fragmentation is good news for Nigerian artists. According to Osagbai, it means that niche artists can finally have something to be able to monetize their audience, if they so desire through shows, tickets and merch. 

“The Nigerian music industry now has different demographics,” he enthused. But Osagbai also foresees a future where those demographics can be individually successful and sustainable. 

“You look at America, where an artist like Russ or Wiz Khalifa can sell out theaters and clubs, and make millions off ticketing, merch and exclusive content because their niche market is enough,” he continues. “Here, I foresee a future where someone like Brymo or Ogranya can have steady, sustainable success as an individual artist, because a particular demographic is enough. But first, they need to get creative.”

To Osagbai, this expansion is also necessary to advance the increase in the genres that appeal to people. 

“Asake, like Bella Shmurda, Zinoleesky and more are representing Fuji. There was also Terry Apala representing another movement before them,” he says. “It’s just one example, but this reality is both fragmenting and uniting Nigerian music. Look at how The Cavemen sell out shows. Look at the success that KCee achieved with Cultural Praise. It’s possible. Just look around you. 

But of course, stresses the importance of local touring. Even as streaming is slowly starting to reflect our true listening habits, it’s still in its infancy. However, he is also bullish about streaming being the future of music consumption. In a country where over 53% of its population is under 19 years old, he knows that streaming will take off soon.