FIFA and Advisory Body Disagree on Potential World Cup Betting Irregularities

An international advisory body has flagged seven potential match-fixing incidents, based on betting irregularities detected during the World Cup. The findings by the Copenhagen Group—an independent international network dedicated to uncovering, sanctioning, and preventing manipulation in sports competitions—stem from its integrity monitoring operation across all 104 matches of the tournament.

While the full report is yet to be released, a summary of its conclusions was circulated by the Council of Europe. According to sources familiar with the report, who spoke anonymously as they were not authorized to do so publicly, the alerts for potential irregularities during matches included:

Unusual market movements on the Polymarket betting exchange; Abnormal odds changes; Social media rumors; Information from sources.

Sources indicate the report details how, on July 2, Polymarket opened a market asking: “Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?” This occurred on the same day the American forward received a red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the knockout stage.

FIFA's disciplinary committee only confirmed Balogun's availability after his suspension was overturned on July 5. Sources claim the Copenhagen Group's report notes that no similar markets were opened for any of the other 14 players who received red cards during the tournament, none of whom had their suspensions overturned.

The Copenhagen Group, operating under the Council of Europe's Macolin Convention—a multilateral treaty aimed at combating match-fixing through changes in international law—stated it has sent a formal request for a written explanation to FIFA regarding the Balogun case. The Athletic has reached out to FIFA and Polymarket for comment on the group's findings.

Christian Kalb, a gambling industry expert who has worked with several governments on betting regulatory issues and previously collaborated with the Copenhagen Group but was not involved in this report, told The Athletic that the flagged irregularities could be due to factors other than manipulation.

The Copenhagen Group's operation was conducted in coordination with FIFA's Integrity Task Force, which includes both the group and the Council of Europe as independent organizations.

On Tuesday, FIFA's Integrity Task Force published its findings, reporting that “no suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation were identified in connection with any match” throughout the entire competition.

However, on Wednesday, the Copenhagen Group clarified that its own World Cup monitoring had generated seven “yellow alerts.”

According to the group's definition, these alerts are issued due to “several different indications of irregularities,” which can include “unexplained odds fluctuations, social media rumors, or information from sources.”

The group categorizes events into four color-coded categories: green (normal), yellow (slightly elevated alert), orange (elevated alert), and red (highest alert).

“The Copenhagen Group's alerts can be explained by atypical behavior such as odds changes or liquidity hedging; there are many explanations not related to manipulation,” Kalb told The Athletic.

“The main issue is when there might be a conflict of interest and potential insider information on these matters. When we talk about prediction markets, we can find some unusual behaviors, but we need to be very careful, as they can be used to hedge markets.”

“If you are a traditional bookmaker, there will be matches where everyone is betting on a very strong favorite to win. So, from the bookmaker's perspective, perhaps too many people are betting on that outcome. If the company is small, this could pose a risk, so they might use a prediction market like Polymarket to hedge that risk.”

“In this way, they can use outcomes where strong favorites don't win as an actual insurance policy. This is selling those outcomes against the possibility of the favorite winning, to minimize potentially large losses.”

FIFA's Integrity Task Force was established in 2019 for that year's Women's World Cup and has operated at every subsequent World Cup, with the Copenhagen Group coordinating its activities with the task force at each tournament.

The Copenhagen Group estimates that $240 billion was wagered during the World Cup, approximately double the amount from the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

It reported placing 15 matches from the tournament under enhanced surveillance, particularly during the final round of the group stage, and analyzed “12 major contentious cases in light of integrity risks.”

“The volume of betting on a World Cup is so enormous that it's very difficult to make any extrapolations from it,” Kalb said. “Each match represents billions of pounds.”

For the first time, the Copenhagen Group conducted continuous monitoring of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi (an official FIFA partner). These platforms operate in a highly fragmented and rapidly evolving regulatory environment, with rules varying by jurisdiction.

The performance of prediction markets during the World Cup “exceeded any estimate any of us had,” Chad Beynon, a gaming and entertainment industry analyst at financial firm Macquarie Group, told The New York Times earlier this week.

In its report, the Copenhagen Group stated: “These prediction markets raise unprecedented questions: they allow betting on a very wide range of events, often anonymously and through payment methods that are difficult to trace. Their monitoring is a precedent for an international competition.”