Dangote warns Iran–US conflict could force Nigeria into COVID-style work-from-home reality

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has raised fresh concerns over the escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, warning that Nigeria could face severe economic hardship and even a return to COVID-era work-from-home measures if the crisis is not de-escalated.

Speaking in a recent interview, Dangote said the global nature of the conflict means countries like Nigeria, despite having no direct involvement, will inevitably bear the consequences. According to him, rising instability in the oil market is already pushing up energy costs, which could trigger a ripple effect across all sectors of the economy.

“When you talk about energy, it affects almost everything,” he said, noting that increases in fuel prices often lead to higher transportation costs, food prices, and general living expenses. This aligns with recent trends, where volatility in global crude oil prices has translated into higher petroleum costs locally, worsening inflation and the cost of basic commodities.

Dangote warned that if the conflict persists, opportunistic pricing and supply disruptions could push costs even higher, placing additional strain on both businesses and households. He stressed that governments may struggle to cushion the impact, especially as many African nations are already grappling with debt burdens.

The billionaire industrialist painted a concerning picture of what could follow: reduced working days, business slowdowns, and a possible shift back to remote work. Drawing comparisons with the COVID-19 period, he noted that some countries are already considering limiting workdays or encouraging people to stay home to manage economic pressure.

“If it doesn’t de-escalate, we may end up like during COVID, where people will have to work from home,” he said, adding that such measures would hit daily income earners the hardest. In Nigeria, where many rely on daily earnings to survive, the impact could be particularly severe.

Dangote also highlighted how small businesses would struggle with rising operational costs, especially due to reliance on generators powered by expensive fuel.

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Beyond the conflict, Dangote touched on the recent visit of Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the United Kingdom, describing it as a positive step for economic diplomacy. He noted that agreements worth about £746 million in infrastructure investment signal growing international confidence in Nigeria and could open doors for more foreign funding and partnerships.

However, he emphasised that global peace remains critical, warning that without de-escalation in the Iran–US tensions, economic gains could be overshadowed by widespread hardship.