Owo church attack and Oyo school kidnapping happened months before elections - coincidence or pattern?

• Gunmen attacked St Francis Catholic Church in Owo in 2022, killing dozens of worshippers and shocking the South-West region once considered relatively safe from terrorism.

• Fresh fears emerged after dozens of pupils and teachers were abducted from schools in Oyo State, showing how mass kidnappings are spreading beyond Northern Nigeria.

• President Bola Tinubu and regional leaders are under pressure to improve security, strengthen local policing, and stop terror attacks from becoming entrenched in the South-West.

The deadly attack on worshippers at a Catholic church in Owo, Ondo State, and the recent mass abduction of pupils and teachers in Oyo State have again raised difficult questions about Nigeria’s worsening insecurity and whether such incidents tend to escalate close to major political seasons.

When gunmen stormed St Francis Catholic Church during a Pentecost service in June 2022, the horror shocked the country. Armed attackers reportedly opened fire on worshippers and detonated explosives, leaving scores dead, including children.

Then President Muhammadu Buhari condemned the massacre, saying “only fiends from the nether region” could have carried out such a “dastardly act.”

Witnesses described scenes of panic as gunshots rang through the church. One resident, identified simply as Abayomi, said he heard “a loud explosion and gunshots inside the church” while passing the area. He added that he saw at least five armed men fleeing the scene.

The attack immediately drew outrage across Nigeria and internationally. Ondo State governor Rotimi Akeredolu described it as a “vile and satanic attack” and vowed that the perpetrators would be hunted down.

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Even Pope Francis reacted through the Vatican, praying for victims who were “painfully stricken in a moment of celebration.”

At the time, the Owo church bombing deepened concerns that violence, once concentrated mainly in Northern Nigeria, was gradually spreading into the South-West.

Nearly four years later, another shocking incident has again unsettled the South-West.

Gunmen raided three schools in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State on May 15, abducting dozens of pupils, students and teachers in what many described as one of the boldest school attacks recorded in the region.

The affected schools included Community High School, Ahoro-Esiele; Primary School, Esiele; and Yawota Baptist Nursery and Primary School.

Among the victims reportedly killed was mathematics teacher Michael Oyedokun, who was allegedly beheaded by the attackers, an act many residents described as barbaric and terrifying.

Official figures indicated that 18 primary school pupils, seven secondary school students and seven teachers remained in captivity, although local community leaders claimed the total number affected was higher.

The incident immediately revived memories of earlier mass kidnappings in places like Chibok, Kankara and Buni Yadi.

For years, mass school abductions were largely associated with Northern Nigeria. But security experts and local leaders have repeatedly warned that criminal groups and terror cells were gradually moving southward.

Governors in the South-West had previously pledged stronger regional cooperation against kidnapping and terrorism.

At a security meeting in Ibadan in November 2025, governors agreed to establish a real-time digital security platform aimed at coordinating rapid responses and sharing threat alerts across states.

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Babajide Sanwo-Olu, chairman of the South-West Governors’ Forum, said at the time that governors were committed to reclaiming forests from kidnappers and bandits.

But recent attacks suggest the threat may already be deeply rooted.

Traditional leader Gani Adams had warned as far back as November 2025 that terrorists and bandits had infiltrated forests across Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti and Osun states.

Now, many residents believe those warnings are becoming reality.

Security analysts also point to the fact that suspects linked to the 2022 Owo church attack were only formally charged under anti-terrorism laws in August 2025, three years after the killings happened.

Earlier this year, gunmen also invaded a Celestial Church in Owo and kidnapped six worshippers, further worsening fears in the area.

The repeated attacks have intensified criticism of government handling of security nationwide.

From the Abuja-Kaduna train attack to kidnappings of clerics, farmers, travellers and schoolchildren, many Nigerians say insecurity has become normalised.

The situation has also reopened debate over whether major violent incidents tend to rise before election periods, though authorities have not officially linked recent attacks to politics.

What is clear, however, is that public confidence is wearing thin.

For many families in Oyo, Ondo and several other states, the concern is no longer politics, but survival.