Man United under Rangnick: What the underlying numbers reveal

A cardinal rule of analytics is to never make assumptions or conclude after a small sample size of games, but we might be guilty of that owing to how much was made after Ralf Rangnick’s Manchester United appointment.

The German replaced the jettisoned Ole Gunnar Solskjaer on November 29 with much fanfare and an expectation to alter the side’s on-field approach. 

The Red Devils appeared to be fuelled by the brilliance of individuals under the departed Norwegian rather than any coherent structure, an approach that was evident for the majority of his spell but looked impossible to continue in Solskjaer’s final months. 

In truth, there is little to judge Rangnick’s reign on, owing to coronavirus outbreaks at a few clubs which has seen their last two Premier League fixtures against Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion postponed. 

So far, the 63-year-old has picked up a couple of 1-0 victories, but are there any interesting observations from the two wins over Crystal Palace and Norwich City?

Pressing has always been an important facet of Rangnick’s modus operandi and they have attempted 150 and 149 pressures in their two PL games under the new boss. In isolation, neither ranked as the team’s highest tally in the league this season but something stood out, nonetheless. 

Against Patrick Vieira’s Palace, the Red Devils regained possession 55 times within five seconds of harrying the man in possession, while it was 50 at Carrow Road. Interestingly, this outranks the Manchester giants’ previous games this season, with the German tactician’s home bow seeing United’s 36.7 percent of successful pressures beat their season-best against Southampton in gameweek two.

In a sense, it is also not surprising that United have made an excessive number of recoveries in both fixtures, recovering 105 loose balls in that Old Trafford success over the Eagles and racking up 99 against Dean Smith’s troops. 

Strikingly, only in their 4-1 defeat by Watford (107) have United amassed a higher number. 

While chance creation still appears to be an issue, Rangnick’s side have looked to play the ball forward more often in the opening games under the new boss than they managed in the final games under Solskjaer. 

They completed 50 passes into the final third against Palace (the highest since September), while the 34 the following week against Norwich outdoes every game’s tally since October. 

Thirteen successful passes into the penalty area in both fixtures outdo every game except the 1-1 home draw against Everton in early October (19) and the volume of progressive passes in the last two games—40 and 47—better the preceding seven games before Rangnick’s bow.

It is still early doors but there have been a couple of encouraging signs, particularly the opening half of football against Crystal Palace. Time will tell whether the green shoots blossom into something significant over the coming weeks and months.