Analysis of political trends in 2023 presidential campaigns [Pulse Editor’s Opinion]

Although parties are still rubbing their internal structures and processes, before presenting official electoral candidates, presidential campaigns had long kicked off last year with Tinubu’s billboards and posters around Ikoyi, Lagos.

Each campaign is not too unique from the other. Certain patterns have been observed across various electoral candidates, political platforms, and media messages.

This article identifies and analyzes campaign trends as observed in the 2022/2023 political season.

Why is everyone crowdfunding their campaign?

For the first time in Nigerian politics, crowdfunding has been vastly considered as a means to fund campaigns. Presidential aspirants, Khadijah Okunnu-Lamidi and Dele Momodu, have disclosed to the public that they are relying on public donations to run their campaigns.

Before he officially declared interest in the presidential race, Peter Obi’s supporters on social media were already rallying on how to crowdfund his campaign.

It is general knowledge that electoral campaigns are expensive. For this reason, many people seek funding from various sources, or dump their political dreams for more affordable goals.

While sourcing funds from the general public can be very helpful in solving expenses, it could also be used as a political strategy for perception, and community engagement.

Wealth is often demonized, and when the wealthy seek power, the grassroot could perceive the aspiration as next level oppression. Hence, to identify as a man/woman of the people, it makes sense to seek help from the people.

Crowdfunding also makes supporters feel more connected to platforms and campaigns. In an interview with Pulse, Khadijah calls her crowdfunding strategy an “investment by the people.”

The sense of belongingness humans crave is the psychological need being satisfied by the crowdfunding strategy.

The psychological need to belong also motivates us to participate in social activities such as club donations, sports teams, religious groups, and community participation.

So every PDP aspirant has a group sponsoring their N40m nomination forms?… right.

Since the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) started selling its nomination forms, no aspirant under the platform has bought their forms with their money.

A “group of friends” bought the form for Aminu Tambuwal; a group of “young professionals” bought the form for Bukola Saraki; a “coalition of 350 groups” picked a form for Ayim Pius Ayim; a “North-east group” bought the form for Atiku Abubakar; Wike also got sponsored by "friends."

Whether reality, or performed, the psychological goal of this strategy is called the bandwagon effect.

People experience the bandwagon effect for various reasons, such as because they want to conform with others in order to gain their approval, because they believe that relying on the opinion of others is beneficial, or because they're motivated by additional mechanisms, such as the fear of missing out.

Many people are politically shallow. Hence, when headlines like “North-east group purchases presidential form for Atiku” are thrown their way, they believe that the candidate (i.e Atiku) is a general choice, and they have to blend with general opinions.

Twitter politics is now legit

After the entire nation was legally banned from Tweeting, one would have thought that the political use of the platform will significantly reduce. However, Twitter has significantly substituted the media in terms of relating directly with voters.

Bukola Saraki, former Senate president, and 2023 presidential aspirant, was hosted on a Twitter space, convened by Rinu Oduala, who is popular for her contributions during the EndSARS protest. ‘Rinu’s Spaces’ is known for the town-hall-model virtual meetings, where relevant societal news and political views are discussed.

On attendance, Saraki attended to questions raised by bare members of the society; the ordinary people. The live event gives no room for question-preps, cuts, and edits. I like to believe Saraki was risking a lot coming on that platform. He mumbled on a few questions, and opted for politically correct answers on some, but also was able to be explanatory on the things he was certain about.

The gap between politicians and the voting public has been bridged by media technology, and Saraki is harnessing the opportunity

Peter Obi has also used social media to spur up conversations and issue official statements. Long before he declared his presidential ambition, an affiliate of his published his full CV on twitter, making him a top trend for days. The CV served as a credibility base for the candidate.

The psychological effect of that single move is still in effect today. Youngins were impressed with the heavy CV of Peter Obi, and many have since mentally noted (and even voiced out) that he is the “qualified” person to lead Nigeria into better days.

Political Bromance... Cute or naive?

Few presidential candidates have shown some form of support for each other's presidential aspiration.

Peter Obi declared his presidential aspiration, barely 24 hours after he showed support for Atiku by attending his official declaration event.

Also, long before Obi's declaration, Dele Momodu, who also aspires to be President, told Channels TV that Peter Obi ("his friend") is fit to join the presidential race.

Saraki has also notably been rolling and putting up appearances alongside Tambuwal and Atiku.

The bromance could be real, or fake, but this reporter particularly views it as a naive act. If you verbally or physically endorse someone else for a position you want, you clearly do not want it bad enough.

In Conclusion...

The purpose of drawing out these observed political trends swerves from intentions to slam or condemn political strategies. Political awareness is a tool Nigerians need to be equipped with in times like these, when there is heavy saturation of political messages around the 2023 presidential elections.

There is the need to be able to separate shafts from the grains when digesting various campaign messages and following electoral events. There is also the need to know the psychological effects every message and action has on public voters.

Although few candidates are still stuck in the era of manipulating voters by sharing food items with their faces boldly stamped on them, others have recognised that the Nigerians they deal with today might require other non-obvious forms of manipulation.

Shine your eyes guys

*Pulse Editor's Opinion is the viewpoint of an Editor at Pulse. It does not represent the opinion of the Organisation Pulse.